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Post by Old Badger on Jun 12, 2023 23:12:03 GMT -5
It's been practically painful watching the unfolding of the realignment stories across the three Power 5 conferences not named Big Ten and SEC. For a while there was concern that the Big XII, having lost Texas and Oklahoma on top of earlier losses of Texas A&M, Missouri, Nebraska, and Colorado, was doomed. But then they got a decent TV deal and appeared ready to pick apart the PAC-Whatever after it lost UCLA and USC.. But then half the members of the ACC plotted the demise of that conference over its long-term commitment to ESPN that will have its members earning much less than the B1G and SEC schools.
And now it seems the focus again is on the PAC. It seems that they still don't have a TV deal for the budget year starting on July 1, 2024. And that seems to have some of the Presidents and Athletic Directors concerned because they have to start preparing to budget for that year. Washington State, in particular, is facing budget cuts as it is, so can't afford to lose more money on athletics. Some think this means that unless there's a financially acceptable deal for the league by June 30 of this year, some schools will be announcing their departure. The big rumors involve Colorado and (possibly) Arizona jumping to the Big XII, which has not been shy in pursuing them. And many think if that happens the entire PAC could unravel, with the B1G possibly swooping in form Washington, Oregon, and maybe more. Already it's speculated that the delay in finalizing a TV deal could lead San Diego State, considered the PAC's top choice for expansion, to instead join the Big XII.
It's all a bit messy, but it's entirely possible that no further moves will be announced this year, or for several more years, until the next round of media rights deals comes up around 2030. The Big XII already has four new members coming (Brigham Young, Houston, Cincinnati, and Central Florida), the B1G and SEC need to absorb two major additions each, the ACC seems to have stabilized for the moment, so everything may be settling down.
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Post by Old Badger on Jun 13, 2023 23:50:21 GMT -5
Suddenly, it seems that all the talk about the mass migration of PAC teams to the Big XII, and perhaps the B!G, with a consequent collapse of the PAC has become a lot more tempered. It's possible that the PAC presidents have heard good news about a media deal that would provide enough revenue to make a move to another conference unnecessary. Or perhaps the leaders of the other conferences are less keen to take on PAC members than previously thought. The Big XII seems more interested now in adding the basketball powerhouses. Connecticut and Gonzaga, at least for MBB, than raiding the PAC. And the ACC's Magnificent Seven appear to have been somewhat placated by adoption of a performance-based distribution system for TV revenue. After all the tumult of the past few months, we just may have reached a bit of a calm. For now.
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Post by Old Badger on Jun 20, 2023 23:44:54 GMT -5
USC is getting ready for its final season in the PAC-12 before joining the Big Ten next year. So, they just released uniforms they'll be using when potential recruits come to visit: jerseys with a "B1G" logo. Clever idea. Recruits know that CFB now is dominated by only two conferences, and the B1G is one of them. No one is sure the PAC-12 even will exist in the fall of 2024, but even if it survives these recruits understand that they won't be playing in games with big-time TV coverage. They may be on Apple+ or ION instead of ABC/ESPN. Meanwhile, in the B1G they'll mostly be showing up on Fox, NBC, and CBS. They get that.
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Post by Old Badger on Jun 29, 2023 0:29:49 GMT -5
It is believed widely that Friday, June 30, is a key date in the whole realignment saga. For one thing, 14 schools join new conferences the next day:
Big XII
BYU (IND)
Cincinnati (AAC)
Houston (AAC)
UCF (AAC)
AAC
Charlotte (C-USA)
FAU (C-USA)
UAB (C-USA)
North Texas (C-USA)
Rice (C-USA)
UTSA
C-USA
Liberty (IND)
New Mexico State (IND)
Jacksonville State (ASUN)*
Sam Houston State (WAC)*
*Two-year probationary period for moving up from FCS.
Still undecided is what happens to the PAC-12. They still have one year to run on their media rights deal, but may have to decide by Friday to invite San Diego State, which faces a doubling of its cost to leave the Mountain West (from $17 million to $34 million) if they don't announce their intention to leave by June 30. And if they do decide to go, do they go to the Big XII or the PAC? Without a media deal in place, moving into that conference seems risky, but is the Big XII really interested in SDSU? After all, if the PAC falls apart they stand to make a possibly huge haul: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. Of course, the Big XII may have made its own mistake in reacting to the losses of Oklahoma and Texas at the end of the 2023-24 year by adding independent BYU, and Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF from the American. Is there room to absorb four more, and will BYU really endorse Utah for membership?
Then too, if the PAC does not get a good TV deal and the Four Corners schools do jump ship for the Big XII, that increases the likelihood that the B1G will take Oregon and Washington. But they probably won't do that unless they can add another two schools at the same time, bringing their total to 20. Among the top candidates to complete that roster: Miami (F) and Notre Dame. One thing I learned just today is that there is an escalator clause in the B1G contract with the networks that kicks in if Notre Dame joins. That's a big incentive for them to nail down ND before inviting anyone else. And don't rule it out. ND nearly agreed to join the B1G around 1999, but backed off when some major donors threatened to stop giving. I suspect most of them are dead by now, but more importantly even the most hard-line "independence" supporter likely can see that CFB is moving on from its old model and ND either moves with it or will get left behind.
So expect more, and soon.
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Post by Old Badger on Jun 29, 2023 23:22:05 GMT -5
So, it now is just about June 30 here on the East Coast, and still no word on the PAC-12's new media deal. The current one expires one year from now, but schools planning to leave need to give notice, and the later they do the more they have to compensate the remaining members. This drama has been unfolding at least since 2021, and still there's no resolution. PAC-12 columnist John Wilner thinks the end is night:
So, it could be 2 weeks or a bit more before there's any clarity. Unlike Wilner, I assume something already has "gone wrong" in this saga because of all the false alerts that they were "almost there" on agreements. The fact that the Four Corners schools haven't bolted to the Big XII already suggests the league will survive. But it seems to be a near thing.
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Post by Old Badger on Jul 1, 2023 0:39:31 GMT -5
June 30 has come and gone, at least in the Eastern and Central Time Zones as I write, and there's still no PAC media deal, except the announcement that the talks have "accelerated", whatever that means. As a consequence, everything else remains frozen. Even San Diego State apparently has notified the Mountain West that their letter about leaving was not the final word, an they intend to stay with that conference...for now. This feels like the world's slowest clock is moving lazily at the moment, and it's possible that no more big realignment news is in the offing for this year. But we're still a long way from the sorting out that is underway to be completed.
I still think that the Big Ten will be adding 4 more schools sooner rather than later: Notre Dame, Miami, Washington, and Oregon.
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Post by Old Badger on Jul 2, 2023 0:07:35 GMT -5
Here are the 14 Division I-A conference changes that took effect today (July 1):
American Athletic Conference
Departing: UCF, Cincinnati, Houston
Joining: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA
Big XII Conference
Departing: None
Joining: BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston
Conference USA
Departing: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA
Joining: Jacksonville State*, Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston*
Independents
Departing: BYU, Liberty, New Mexico State
Joining: None
*Moving up from I-AA Conferences: Jacksonville State from the Atlantic Sun and Sam Houston from the Western Athletic.
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Post by Old Badger on Jul 4, 2023 10:49:25 GMT -5
BYU officially joined the Big XII on July 1. They then posted a picture of their new field design. Can you see anything wrong with it?
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