Post by Old Badger on Jun 4, 2023 16:21:06 GMT -5
Former Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren concluded the agreement for the conference to add USC and UCLA in 2024, and said that the B1G eventually wanted to get to 20 members. The President of the University of Nebraska recently reiterated that goal in a public discussion. Sports writer Brett McMurphey wrote last week that Washington and Oregon had been "vetted and cleared" for B1G membership. And a couple of days ago came news that two other schools widely discussed as possible acquisitions have been invited to join the prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU): Notre Dame and Miami. That has speculation going through the roof of a four-school scoop-up of Washington, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Miami, which would be a pretty impressive move by the Conference. This speculation is premature, and while not crazy, it's also about path strewn with potholes.
First, the B1G, having poached the two LA schools from the PAC-12, is reluctant to put the final shiv into that conference's ribs. Not out of any delicacy, but because it could lead to a "tortious interference" lawsuit by the remainder PAC. Rather, they likely are waiting for the newly-aggressive Big XII to swoop in and grab enough schools to crash the PAC. Colorado seems on the verge, and many expect Utah and/or at least one of the Arizona schools will join them. That could cause the conference, which still has no media rights deal to replace its current, expiring package, to implode, and make Washington and Oregon available to the B1G.
Second, Miami is a surprising newcomer to B1G speculation. A long-time independent that joined the Big East when it formed a football conference in the 1990s, then defected to the ACC in the early 2000s, Miami seems at first glance like an odd fit. It's in the extreme southeast corner of the country, far from the B1G's heartland roots, is private unlike 13 of the 14 current members, and has not traditionally been considered a major research institution. Well, expansion into Southern California shows that the B1G has given up on geographical contiguity as a criterion for inclusion; it's now become a coast-to-coast national conference. Moving into the Southeast would extend that picture, especially if they also go into the Northwest corner. And Miami has a great sports market (TV/streaming services like that) as well as one of the best areas from recruiting players in the country. And the addition of USC shows the B1G is not averse to having private members. Finally, Miami's accession to the AAU certifies their successful climb into the research university elite, an intentional process pushed by three consecutive presidents, including former UW Chancellor Donna Shalala.
Finally, Notre Dame is the biggest name out there, an automatic home run, but...it's not going to be easy. ND still prefers football independence, but it also has to be concerned that it is unlikely to get the kind of TV revenue B1G members will be making under their new media rights deal. I imagine it will not sit well in South Bend if Rutgers has higher football revenue than ND does. And being independent likely will make it harder to get into the playoffs, despite the expansion of the field to 12 because the B1G and SEC will have enough weight to get multiple teams in with 2 losses, but ND may need to go at least 11-1 to make the field as an IND. All that said, ND's deal with the ACC requires them to join that conference if they decide to give up independence. And it runs through 2036. But, as we've seen, such contracts almost never are iron-clad, and at least half of the current 14 ACC members want to kill off the conference, anyway.
So, it may not happen soon, but a 20-team Big Ten, including Washington, Oregon, Miami, and Notre Dame is not impossible. Gotta keep an eye on this.
First, the B1G, having poached the two LA schools from the PAC-12, is reluctant to put the final shiv into that conference's ribs. Not out of any delicacy, but because it could lead to a "tortious interference" lawsuit by the remainder PAC. Rather, they likely are waiting for the newly-aggressive Big XII to swoop in and grab enough schools to crash the PAC. Colorado seems on the verge, and many expect Utah and/or at least one of the Arizona schools will join them. That could cause the conference, which still has no media rights deal to replace its current, expiring package, to implode, and make Washington and Oregon available to the B1G.
Second, Miami is a surprising newcomer to B1G speculation. A long-time independent that joined the Big East when it formed a football conference in the 1990s, then defected to the ACC in the early 2000s, Miami seems at first glance like an odd fit. It's in the extreme southeast corner of the country, far from the B1G's heartland roots, is private unlike 13 of the 14 current members, and has not traditionally been considered a major research institution. Well, expansion into Southern California shows that the B1G has given up on geographical contiguity as a criterion for inclusion; it's now become a coast-to-coast national conference. Moving into the Southeast would extend that picture, especially if they also go into the Northwest corner. And Miami has a great sports market (TV/streaming services like that) as well as one of the best areas from recruiting players in the country. And the addition of USC shows the B1G is not averse to having private members. Finally, Miami's accession to the AAU certifies their successful climb into the research university elite, an intentional process pushed by three consecutive presidents, including former UW Chancellor Donna Shalala.
Finally, Notre Dame is the biggest name out there, an automatic home run, but...it's not going to be easy. ND still prefers football independence, but it also has to be concerned that it is unlikely to get the kind of TV revenue B1G members will be making under their new media rights deal. I imagine it will not sit well in South Bend if Rutgers has higher football revenue than ND does. And being independent likely will make it harder to get into the playoffs, despite the expansion of the field to 12 because the B1G and SEC will have enough weight to get multiple teams in with 2 losses, but ND may need to go at least 11-1 to make the field as an IND. All that said, ND's deal with the ACC requires them to join that conference if they decide to give up independence. And it runs through 2036. But, as we've seen, such contracts almost never are iron-clad, and at least half of the current 14 ACC members want to kill off the conference, anyway.
So, it may not happen soon, but a 20-team Big Ten, including Washington, Oregon, Miami, and Notre Dame is not impossible. Gotta keep an eye on this.