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Post by Old Badger on Sept 17, 2019 12:25:07 GMT -5
It seems as if Israel just had elections a few months ago, doesn't it? Well, yeah because they did--in April. Why are they back to the polls only 5 months later? Well, there's a complicated answer that involves the exemption of the ultra-Orthodox from military service, personal rivalries, and a lot of other stuff. It's all explained nicely by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency here: www.jta.org/2019/09/09/israel/here-we-go-again-a-beginners-guide-to-israels-2nd-election-in-2019. But there's also a simple answer: proportional representation. To oversimplify, in Israel parties get seats in the Knesset in proportion to their share of the total vote. But to get any seats they must get a minimum of 3.25 percent of the total votes cast. In the April elections 10 parties won seats. The right-wing Likud and the centrist Blue and White parties each one 35 seats. Likud's election ally, Kulanu, added 4, giving Netanyahu the opportunity to form a government, which requires a majority (61 of 120 seats). In theory this should have worked out because several rightist parties together had enough seats to reach a majority, but see the complicate story above on why that did not happen. So, back to elections, which again may by inconclusive. Most parliamentary countries use proportional representation and let the parties sort out governing coalitions after elections. Especially where the bar to entry is low (as in Israel and Italy) the result usually is a fractured parliament with lots of jockeying to put together a majority. This gives outsized power to small parties, and that in turn provides them with an incentive to run independently of any big party that might be a natural ally. For example, the Israeli Orthodox parties, though they represent a relatively small minority, have been extracting special favors from government almost from the first election: state support for their private schools, military exemption, subsidies, etc. Over time they have aligned themselves first with the then-minant left-wing Labor Party, and in recent decades with Likud. Their support always comes at a heavy price, however. Systems such as our own, with single-member and first-past-the-post elections, typically avoid proportional representation, at least most of the time. Effectively, whatever coalition-building takes place tends to do so before rather than after the elections. This is especially true where they're a strong Presidency, such as ours, since that necessarily requires a winner-take-all election., even if (as in France and some US gubernatorial elections) there's a two-round process to get there. Systems such as the UK, where there's no president but there is first-past-the-post election system for parliamentary seats, tend to have two major parties, as in the US, but often one or more minor parties. Usually one of the major parties wins a majority, but right now they're stuck with a minority government while making what amounts to an existential decision--which is why it's become so messy. One advantage to a two-party system is that you can maintain fixed-term elections rather than endure the electoral turmoil we see in Israel, and soon enough in the UK. |
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Post by Old Badger on Sept 18, 2019 9:20:49 GMT -5
It seems to take forever to count ballots in Israel, where it's now afternoon and they're still counting. But with about 90 percent counted it looks like another hung Knesset, with Netanyahu's party and possible allies behind. Current estimated seats:
Blue and White (center) - 32
Likud (right) - 31
Joint List (Arabs) -13
Yisrael Beytenu (center-right) - 9
Shas (Sephardic Ultra-Orthodox ) - 9
United Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox) - 8
Yamina (far right) - 7 (temporary alliance of three small parties to meet 3.25 percent threshold)
Labor-Gesher (social democratic) - 6
Democratic Union (social democratic) 5
An nice, somewhat snarky, guide to the parties:
Basically, Likud and the right-wing and religious parties (Shas, UTJ, Yamina) have 55 seats; Blue and White plus the left parties (Labor, DU) with the tacit support of the Arab Joint List have 56. And that leaves Yisrael Beytenu, which grew from 5 to 9 seats, as the key to forming a new Government. Party leader Avigdor Lieberman has been calling for a centrist government of national unity with Likud and Blue-White, but without Netanyahu. In theory, such a government would command a huge majority of 72 seats, but with the two large parties vying for dominance it would be inherently unstable. Lieberman, representing a base of largely secular Russian émigrés, once was a Netanyahu supporter, but broke with him largely over the growing influence of the Religious Right parties in the governing coalition, crystallized in the issue of exemption from military service for Ultra-Orthodox men.
Given the lack of any clear mandate, it's likely to take weeks to form a new government, and it could be that, as after the April elections, none ever is formed, leading to yet another election soon. Oy vey!
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Post by Old Badger on Sept 18, 2019 19:49:33 GMT -5
Trump's already tossed Bibi under the bus: "During a press gaggle in Los Angeles, the president was asked if he got a chance to speak with Prime Minister Netanyahu. 'I have not,' he said. 'Those results are coming in, and it's very close. Look, our relationship is with Israel. We'll see what happens.' " link Just days ago Trump was all high on his buddy, but now the classic Trumpian brush-off: "We'll see." LOL! Meanwhile, the current count is center-left 56, center-right 56. Netanyahu bludgeoned all the right-wing parties to pledge to negotiate a new Cabinet together, and was reported to have said he'd be willing to join a coalition with Blue-White, and even to alternate as PM with its leader--provided he got to go first. That's in part because he's trying to avoid a criminal conviction, of course, but also because there's an excellent chance he'd just collapse the Government when it was Benny Gantz's turn. For his part, Gantz has created his own team to set up a coalition, and also expressed interest in including Likud--but only without Netanyahu. The ultimate kingmaker here is Avigdor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beytenu, who's been pushing for a coalition of the two main parties, but also without Netanyahu. Former PM Ehud Olmert said today: “Netanyahu will no longer serve as prime minister. Not in a rotation pact [with another party], not in any other way. The people of Israel told him, ‘No more.’ The State of Israel is beginning to march in a new direction.” link |
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Post by Old Badger on Sept 19, 2019 12:29:14 GMT -5
Things have deteriorated a bit for Bibi overnight. Latest tally:
Blue and White: 25.93% (33)
Likud: 25.16% (31)
The Joint List: 10.45% (13)
Shas: 7.47% (9)
Yisrael Beytenu: 6.98% (8)
UTJ: 6.09% (8)
Yemina: 5.89% (7)
Labor-Gesher: 4.80% (6)
Democratic Union: 4.34% (5)
This translates into 55 for the right, 57 for the center + left + Arabs. Yisrael Beytenu holds all the cards at this point. The Blue & White and YB leaders both want a broad-based coalition, but without either the religious parties or Netanyahu. That coalition would not need support from the Joint List because it would comprise a majority, 72. If/when the Likud decides that defending Bibi from prosecution for financial corruption by him and his wife is not why the party exists, this is the only sensible out come.
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Post by Old Badger on Sept 24, 2019 10:50:09 GMT -5
So, President Rivlin met with Gantz and Netanyahu yesterday and began negotiations aimed at setting up a centrist majority government of their two parties, perhaps with Lieberman's joining, as well. The objective is to keep out the Arab Joint List on the one hand and the extreme rightist and religious parties on the other. It's the only viable solution, but the fly in the ointment is that Bibi is going to want to retain the PM's office first under a rotation agreement with Gantz in order to avoid--or at least postpone--prosecution for serial corruption. And there's the rub: "Blue and White’s biggest promise, and its most consistent one throughout both election campaigns this year, was that it will not be in a government with Netanyahu as long as he is under an actual or recommended indictment. Netanyahu’s hearing with Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit is next week, and just about every legal reporter in the country, including at The Jerusalem Post, says Mandelblit has a strong case and is likely to indict – which means that Blue and White doesn’t have an easy excuse for sitting with Netanyahu. One Blue and White source told the Post’s sister Hebrew newspaper Ma’ariv that they will not give up on this: 'If the Likud doesn’t send [Netanyahu] home, we will go to another election.' ” linkIsraeli politics is a subject fraught with pitfalls for any analyst or pundit, simply because it's complicated on so many levels that the possible combinations of outcomes are in practical terms infinite. So no predictions here. Just watching the show.  |
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Post by Old Badger on Oct 21, 2019 13:42:32 GMT -5
Netanyahu has failed to form a government, and now President Reuven Rivlin has asked opposition leader Benny Gantz to try over the next 28 days. If he fails, it's back to the polls for a third election in a year. Aren't you glad we don't have a parliamentary system, but one with fixed terms of office? I am.
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Post by Old Badger on Nov 21, 2019 13:44:07 GMT -5
Today Netanyahu was indicted for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. No wonder Trump likes him!
Yesterday, Gantz reported to the President that he is unable to form a Government. Under Israeli law, any Member of the Knesset now can try to form a Government over the next 21 days, though this is unlikely. One of two things is going to happen: either Netanyahu and Gantz are going to form a National Unity Government with power-sharing by the two big parties; or there will have to be yet another election, not likely until April. That would be the third election in less than one year. And there's no guarantee that it will resolve the crisis.
For all those who support the idea of a multi-part system for the US, this should be an object lesson.
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Post by LL on Jan 11, 2020 23:45:42 GMT -5
Netanyahu has enemies , just like Trump and yes there are hardcore leftists supported by Soros in Israel also.
He will be vindicated and probably will retain power also though he’s the longest serving Israeli PM in their history and there is some Bibi fatigue both in Israel and here among his supporters.
I still believe there is a good chance he hangs on to power in the end.
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Post by Old Badger on Jan 12, 2020 0:25:45 GMT -5
Netanyahu has enemies , just like Trump and yes there are hardcore leftists supported by Soros in Israel also. He will be vindicated and probably will retain power also though he’s the longest serving Israeli PM in their history and there is some Bibi fatigue both in Israel and here among his supporters. I still believe there is a good chance he hangs on to power in the end. Oh, for god's sakes, quit mouthing the Soros libel invented by the notorious anti-Semite Viktor Orban in Hungary. At the moment Bibi's an indicted politician, you know the kind who usually has the good grace to resign, or at least step out of a leadership position. Instead, like Trump, he's trying to claim immunity, but it's not working: "Knesset legal adviser Eyal Yinon is expected to rule on Sunday that Speaker Yuli Edelstein cannot halt the formation of the committee to hear the prime minister’s request for immunity. Since there is a clear majority in the Knesset opposed to granting immunity to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Knesset House Committee would almost certainly vote down his request, which would pave the way for his indictments to be formally passed to the Jerusalem District Court." link Latest polling: "A poll carried out by Israel Hayom and Maagar Mochot research institute has found that if the election were to take place today, Blue and White would win 34 seats against Likud's 30, while the Arab Joint List would take another 15. No block would therefore obtain a 61-MKs majority. United Torah Judaism would be the next largest party, securing 8 seats, while Shas and Israel Beytenu would each hold 7. At the lower end of the scale, Bayit Yehudi and Otzma Yehudit together would take 5 seats, while the New Right would achieve 4. Labor-Gesher were also predicted to win 5 seats." link The J-Post says that if those were the results there likely would have to be yet another election. Oy! Anyone who favors a multi-party system should take a close look at Israel's. |
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Post by leftylarry on Jan 30, 2020 15:44:38 GMT -5
Everyone involved with israel Politics as I am, knows very well that Soros and Soros run organizations funded by Soros and the EU are involved with HARDCORE LEFTIST politics in countries. they don't live in or belong in.
Soros, a JEW, hiding out as a Christian is and was a despicable human being, a man who bragged on CBS TV how he was great at his job, of finding hidden Jewish assets and wealth for the NAZI's during the Holocaust.
He secretly involves himself, his network and his money in elections all over the world, israel, the United States, Hungary, Great Britain etc.
He needs to be vilified and exposed, as his organizations use lies, dirty tricks and anything they can get away with to effect elections.
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Post by Old Badger on Feb 4, 2020 15:03:26 GMT -5
Soros, a JEW, hiding out as a Christian is and was a despicable human being, a man who bragged on CBS TV how he was great at his job, of finding hidden Jewish assets and wealth for the NAZI's during the Holocaust. So, after making fun of an autistic teen-ager, you now want to spread calumny about a teen-aged Holocaust survivor? Soros was 13 years old in March 1944 when Nazi Germany occupied Hungary. The Nazis barred Jewish children from attending school, and Soros and the other schoolchildren were made to report to the Judenrat ("Jewish Council"), which had been established during the occupation. Soros later described this time to writer Michael Lewis: "The Jewish Council asked the little kids to hand out the deportation notices. I was told to go to the Jewish Council. And there I was given these small slips of paper ... I took this piece of paper to my father. He instantly recognized it. This was a list of Hungarian Jewish lawyers. He said, 'You deliver the slips of paper and tell the people that if they report they will be deported'." Soros did not return to that job; his family survived the war by purchasing documents to say that they were Christians. Later that year at age 14, Soros posed as the Christian godson of an official of the collaborationist Hungarian government's Ministry of Agriculture, who himself had a Jewish wife in hiding. On one occasion, rather than leave the 14-year-old alone, the official took Soros with him while inventorying a Jewish family's confiscated estate. Tivadar saved not only his immediate family but also many other Hungarian Jews, and Soros later wrote that 1944 had been "the happiest [year] of his life," for it had given him the opportunity to witness his father's heroism. In 1945, Soros survived the Siege of Budapest, in which Soviet and German forces fought house-to-house through the city. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_SorosYou are such a tool, LL. Quit attacking children; it's embarrassing to watch a grown man do that. |
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Post by leftylarry on Feb 13, 2020 11:50:17 GMT -5
More lies OB, Soros did his job long and well:
“Soros himself admitted in a 60 Minutes interview with Steve Kroft on December 20, 1998 that he had no regrets whatsoever about assisting the Nazis in confiscating property from the Jewish people during the Holocaust. That is a fact .
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Post by Old Badger on Feb 13, 2020 23:23:53 GMT -5
More lies OB, Soros did his job long and well: “Soros himself admitted in a 60 Minutes interview with Steve Kroft on December 20, 1998 that he had no regrets whatsoever about assisting the Nazis in confiscating property from the Jewish people during the Holocaust. That is a fact . Right. He was 13 years old and trying to survive. Why do you attack people for doing things as children? BTW, what brave things have you done? For example, did your anti-communism lead you to volunteer to fight for freedom in the Vietnam War, or any other front of the Cold War? Or did you free-ride on the lives and bodies of others? Just asking. |
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Post by leftylarry on Feb 17, 2020 14:13:33 GMT -5
I have already told you ,( when you are losing, you leftists always try to go to character assassination, but I will play along) I had a good number in the lottery , was in college and wasn’t called until very late in the game.
Went down to Whitehall street in NYC and took my physical, passed with flying colors ( not bragging but I had the highest score according to my recruiter) and after the written test , I was asked to join officer training program or whatever it was called back then.
I went home, waited for my induction and Nixon ended the draft before I was inducted.
At that point in the WAR, it was a sucker play to participate anyway.
The left had successfully lost the war, kept our Air Force from bombing them into oblivion and sadly, we were sacrificing foot soldiers for no good reason.
Additionally, unlike you OB , I missed the opportunity to get a relatively cushy position in the coveted Air Force or Coast Guard where pretty much everyone else wanted to hide out.
My father and his 3 brothers all served and saw action in WW 2, all 4 told me to stay away if I could, because at that point , the Left had poisoned the waters and destroyed the War effort.
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Post by Old Badger on Feb 17, 2020 22:36:06 GMT -5
I have already told you ,( when you are losing, you leftists always try to go to character assassination, but I will play along) I had a good number in the lottery , was in college and wasn’t called until very late in the game. Went down to Whitehall street in NYC and took my physical, passed with flying colors ( not bragging but I had the highest score according to my recruiter) and after the written test , I was asked to join officer training program or whatever it was called back then. I went home, waited for my induction and Nixon ended the draft before I was inducted. At that point in the WAR, it was a sucker play to participate anyway. The left had successfully lost the war, kept our Air Force from bombing them into oblivion and sadly, we were sacrificing foot soldiers for no good reason. Additionally, unlike you OB , I missed the opportunity to get a relatively cushy position in the coveted Air Force or Coast Guard where pretty much everyone else wanted to hide out. My father and his 3 brothers all served and saw action in WW 2, all 4 told me to stay away if I could, because at that point , the Left had poisoned the waters and destroyed the War effort. So, you didn't volunteer to fight the Commies (though of course you're now blaming everyone else for that decision--whatever happened to "personal responsibility"), but you have volunteered to fight Virginia State Police, as indicated in another thread. And you still want to attack children for doing what they could to save their lives (just as you did by hiding out in college until "late in the game"). Stop attacking children and I'll give you a pass on your hypocrisy. Deal? |
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Post by leftylarry on Feb 18, 2020 15:44:02 GMT -5
I don't need a pass, I followed the laws and the LEFT killed the morale of the country for that WAR, sided with the enemy like always.
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Post by Old Badger on Feb 19, 2020 1:37:08 GMT -5
I don't need a pass, I followed the laws and the LEFT killed the morale of the country for that WAR, sided with the enemy like always. Excuses, excuses, LL. You coulda volunteered to fight the Commies, instead hid out in the college library, and now you're bragging that you're gonna go fight in Virginia instead of Vietnam...if it comes to that in the fullness of time. You, jon, and all the other draft-dodging "super-patriots" who followed the lead of Dick Cheney and sat one out for the Gipper. We know who and what you guys are. |
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Post by leftylarry on Feb 20, 2020 16:10:14 GMT -5
More red herrings OB, you are glib, I'll give you that.
lying and indoctrinating for so many years I guess develops good skills in that regard.
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Post by Old Badger on Feb 20, 2020 23:08:53 GMT -5
More red herrings OB, you are glib, I'll give you that. lying and indoctrinating for so many years I guess develops good skills in that regard. Indoctrinating? I actually had students ask me at the end of a semester what my party affiliation was because they couldn't figure it out from my lectures/discussions. All I can say is that I opposed the War but served for nearly four years, while you pulled a Dick Cheney, settling for flag-waving instead. Those facts are undeniable. |
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Post by leftylarry on Feb 25, 2020 22:47:36 GMT -5
More red herrings OB, you are glib, I'll give you that. lying and indoctrinating for so many years I guess develops good skills in that regard. Indoctrinating? I actually had students ask me at the end of a semester what my party affiliation was because they couldn't figure it out from my lectures/discussions. All I can say is that I opposed the War but served for nearly four years, while you pulled a Dick Cheney, settling for flag-waving instead. Those facts are undeniable. I don’t believe one word of that OB, I’m on to you and your type and have been since the 60’s. I was at a meeting tonite for major donors and heard a very interesting speaker, an Israeli, originally of Canadian descent. he was a Leftist but of course is upset over the Lefts shift and phoney portrayal of Israel as a Racist country that takes away other people’s human rights. Hes chagrined as a good leftist and explained some things very well. he said that the Euro left conveniently looks at Israel as a White man run Colonialist country when the truth is over 50% of the population are brown Arab Jews from Places like Syria, Yemen, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Brown people who lost their homes and all their wealthand possessions when thos Muslim countries expelled them in the 1960’s, this is an inconvenient truth for the Europeans so they ignore that fact Nd make believe it’s an Ashkenazi European country when it isn’t and hasn’t been for years. They miss the Communist Euro Jews of the Kibbutzes who have been mostly replaced by the more right wing Arab Mizrahi Jews who understand that unlike in Europe, when the War is over and you sign a deal with the co bat ants, the war isn’t over in the Middle East just because you sign a deal with the Arabs. He further explained that it’s pointless to fight European Antisemitism , don’t spend a dollar on that, because the Europeans put any bad trait that they don’t like about themselves and attribute that to the Jews. I mean Jews are the Communists and Bolshevicks and they are also the Bankers and Capitalists depending on which is to be hated more at the time. Very smart guy. |
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Post by leftylarry on Feb 25, 2020 22:48:45 GMT -5
More red herrings OB, you are glib, I'll give you that. lying and indoctrinating for so many years I guess develops good skills in that regard. Indoctrinating? I actually had students ask me at the end of a semester what my party affiliation was because they couldn't figure it out from my lectures/discussions. All I can say is that I opposed the War but served for nearly four years, while you pulled a Dick Cheney, settling for flag-waving instead. Those facts are undeniable. I don’t believe one word of that OB, I’m on to you and your type and have been since the 60’s. I was at a meeting tonite for major donors and heard a very interesting speaker, an Israeli, originally of Canadian descent. he was a Leftist but of course is upset over the Lefts shift and phoney portrayal of Israel as a Racist country that takes away other people’s human rights. Hes chagrined as a good leftist and explained some things very well. he said that the Euro left conveniently looks at Israel as a White man run Colonialist country when the truth is over 50% of the population are brown Arab Jews from Places like Syria, Yemen, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Brown people who lost their homes and all their wealthand possessions when thos Muslim countries expelled them in the 1950’s, this is an inconvenient truth for the Europeans so they ignore that fact Nd make believe it’s an Ashkenazi European country when it isn’t and hasn’t been for years. They miss the Communist Euro Jews of the Kibbutzes who have been mostly replaced by the more right wing Arab Mizrahi Jews who understand that unlike in Europe, when the War is over and you sign a deal with the former combatants, the war isn’t over in the Middle East just because you sign a deal with the Muslims. He further explained that it’s pointless to fight European Antisemitism , don’t spend a dollar on that, because the Europeans put any bad trait that they don’t like about themselves and attribute that to the Jews. I mean Jews are the Communists and Bolshevicks and they are also the Bankers and Capitalists depending on which is to be hated more at the time. Very smart guy. |
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Post by Old Badger on Feb 26, 2020 17:21:49 GMT -5
Indoctrinating? I actually had students ask me at the end of a semester what my party affiliation was because they couldn't figure it out from my lectures/discussions. All I can say is that I opposed the War but served for nearly four years, while you pulled a Dick Cheney, settling for flag-waving instead. Those facts are undeniable. I don’t believe one word of that OB, I’m on to you and your type and have been since the 60’s. Of course you don't. In all the years I've been reading your posts the most striking thing is the extent to which you see people as stereotypes rather than individuals. So, you knew "my type" in the 1960s, but what "type" was that? The anti-Communist liberal Democrat? Not-overly-nerdy student, more interested in girls than studies? Over-achieving kid from inner-city tenements who made good? USAF Airman? Let me know what the stereotype is so I'll know how to interpret your comments. ;-) |
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 17, 2020 0:34:06 GMT -5
"Negotiations between Likud and Blue and White on a national-unity government began in earnest on Monday with a secret meeting that raised optimism an agreement between the two sides could be reached to end the political stalemate...Gantz received a four-week mandate from Rivlin to form a government. It was the second time Gantz received the mandate after he failed to form a government after the September election. Rivlin said he was giving the mandate to Gantz because he received 61 recommendations to form the government, compared with 58 for Netanyahu. He urged Gantz to form as wide a government as possible as soon as possible, adding that a temporary government might be needed at first." linkAfter three inclusive elections in less than a year it's clear that Netanyahu no longer can form a majority government. The current pandemic put off the corruption trial he was supposed to face starting this week, but that's going to continue to hang over him. Indeed, the Blue and White Party proposed three bills today designed to press him into a compromise on a new government; they would limit the a PM to two terms, end the term of a PM under indictment, and block any MK under indictment from getting the opportunity to form a government. Essentially, all three would disqualify Netanyahu. Presumably this is Gantz's way of letting Netanyahu know that it's either a national unity government or he may not be in government at all, much less able to indefinitely put off his trial. I guess this is what passes for "hardball" in this system. |
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