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Post by Old Badger on Aug 8, 2019 23:14:19 GMT -5
Oh, it was bound to happen: the coalition of the right-wing League Party with the populist Five-Star Movement is falling apart. On Wednesday M5S put forward a motion to kill a high-speed rail line between Italy and France, but was defeated by a combination of the League and the Opposition parties. The League had made opposition to the project, which would connect Turin and Lyons, the key to the election manifesto that brought it to power in the last election. And no wonder! The Movement's support is concentrated in the South, hundreds of miles from the proposed line. By contrast, the League, which started out as a regional separatist movement called the Northern League (still its official name), wants to push closer ties between its political base and northern Europe, no doubt still dreaming of a separate state. In other words, this marriage of convenience always was fated to dissolve. So after Wednesday's vote, League leader and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini demanded that the non-partisan Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, call Parliament back into session and “acknowledge that there is no longer a majority, as evidenced by the vote [on Wednesday] and the repeated insults against me.” He wants Conte to dissolve the Government and call new elections. This came on the first day of the summer recess, oddly. Conte had a great response: "the interior minister doesn’t summon parliament and 'it’s not up to him to dictate the steps of the political crisis.' Conte called on Salvini 'to explain to the country and justify to the electorate, who believed in the possibility of change, the reasons that brought him to abruptly interrupt' the activities of government.' ” link It's possible that they will reconvene next week if the crisis can't be settled, setting up new elections. Right now the League is leading all parties in the polls, with around 38 percent, with the center-left Democrats at around 22 percent and the M5S 17. Overall, the center-right parties have support of around 50 percent, the center-left about 25 percent, so it's easy to see why Salvini wants new elections. What's not easy too understand is why M5S provoked this crisis on this issue, given their rapidly-declining poll numbers since the 2018 election, when they were about even with the League. |
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Post by Old Badger on Aug 20, 2019 22:37:20 GMT -5
"Giuseppe Conte...announced his resignation as Italy’s prime minister on Tuesday. After almost two weeks of twists and turns, what happens next is far from clear. The president, Sergio Mattarella, is now calling the shots in a crisis triggered when Matteo Salvini pulled the plug on the League’s tenuous relationship with the Five Star Movement (M5S) in an attempt to capitalise on his popularity and become PM. Mattarella has three options: immediately dissolve parliament and call a snap election; begin consultations with parties to see if a new parliamentary majority can be formed; or install a caretaker government to at least pass Italy’s budget for 2020... "Salvini is a highly effective campaigner, and support for the far-right League has risen from 17% at the 2018 election to 38% in recent polls, but his miscalculations in recent weeks reveal that he is not so much of a strategist. A key blunder was failing to factor in the possibility of M5S teaming up with the centre-left Democratic party (PD) to forge a new majority in parliament, where they are the two largest parties. The potential threat became clear when the two blocked Salvini’s calls for an immediate vote of no-confidence in Conte last week...If the two parties do manage to strike an agreement , Salvini would be ousted from his roles as deputy prime minister and interior minister, from which he has spent the last year building up his and the League’s profile." link
For some reason the PD leader wants new elections, even though it's clear the League would emerge as the strongest party. It's similar to the idiocy in London, where the anti-no-deal Brexit majority can't seem to get behind one temporary PM to block Johnson from sinking the whole country. The tribalism of party politics can be baffling from the outside, even for a grizzled political scientist like me.
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Post by Old Badger on Aug 29, 2019 13:30:52 GMT -5
"Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the centre-left Democratic party (PD) have agreed to try to form a new government in a move that could avert snap elections and push the far-right League into opposition. Italy plunged into chaos this month after Matteo Salvini withdrew his League party from its fractious alliance with M5S as he sought to exploit the party’s popularity to bring about snap elections and become prime minister. The dramatic move threatened to create a fully far-right government. But Salvini, whose tactics have dented his popularity in recent weeks, had not banked on M5S teaming up with the PD. The pair are longstanding enemies but also the two largest parties in parliament. Salvini also had not expected Giuseppe Conte, the outgoing prime minister who ended the ill-fated M5S-League alliance last week, to emerge as his rival. Talks between the PD and M5S only progressed after Nicola Zingaretti, the PD leader, succumbed to demands from his M5S counterpart, Luigi Di Maio, to reinstate Conte." linkJust as the UK sinks into a right-wing extremist crisis, Italy may be avoiding one. The UK was, until the ill-fated Brexit vote, one of the most stable countries in European history; Italy is about to install its 60th government in the 74 years since the Republic replaced the Monarchy. Yet it is Italy that may help stem the xenophobic tide sweeping parts of Europe, as the newly-emerging government brings together parties that have been affronted by Salvini's focus on demonizing refugees and immigrants, ala Donald Trump. The re-emergence of Conte as PM would be a painful irony for Salvini, but perhaps more ironic is that Trump, who has been praising Salvini for months, suddenly is hailing Conte as a "highly respected" and "very talented" leader who gets along well with the US (meaning Trump), and expressed hope a couple of days ago that he'd remain PM. In short, Salvini seems to have removed himself from a powerful position by reaching for more power. None of this is set in stone yet. The parties still need to work out a division of power among the Cabinet and other posts, and M5S likely will do an online poll of its members to confirm its participation (many will oppose joining a mainstream party), but if it all works out it's just possible that Italy will have avoided the worst possible outcome: a Northern League government. |
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Post by Old Badger on Aug 30, 2019 9:31:34 GMT -5
The Italian President has given PM Conte five days to put together a new coalition government between the Democrats and M5S. Meanwhile, having been outfoxed by those party leaders, Salvini has called on his supporters to hold a March on Rome on October 19. Frankly, by then there should be a new government, or new elections underway, so this is all symbolic. But it seems to be his way of threatening democratic forces by replicating Mussolini's march on Roma that pot the Fascists into power. Salvini's no Mussolini, of course; he has no armed, uniformed troops and Italy's institutions have proven more flexible than those of the 1920s. Still, symbols are important, and Salvini's dropping a big marker here. www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/30/salvini-urges-far-right-supporters-to-march-on-rome-after-bid-to-force-election-backfires |
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Post by Old Badger on Sept 4, 2019 15:50:46 GMT -5
The new Cabinet is being installed, and this particular appointment is significant: "A career civil servant and specialist in migration policy has succeeded the far-right leader Matteo Salvini as Italy’s interior minister in a new left-leaning pro-European coalition government aimed at drawing a line under a crisis sparked by Salvini’s populist League party. Luciana Lamorgese, a 38-year veteran of the interior ministry, has in recent years been in charge of planning refugee and migrant reception centres in northern Italy and is known for promoting integration events and policies. She was also the first female security chief, or prefect, of Milan. Her appointment should mark a break from the era of Salvini, whose hardline immigration measures included the closure of Italian ports to NGO rescue vessels and the abolition of key protections for asylum seekers." linkBravissima! When he had the job Salvini shamed Italy by promulgating a "security decree that provided for the seizure of NGO rescue boats and fines for vessels that brought migrants to Italy without permission. Dozens of captains of rescue boats and volunteers subsequently ended up under investigation, with at least eight in the last three months." Yes, good Samaritans who rescued people from drowning in the Mediterranean Sea found themselves arrested and charged with smuggling immigrants illegally. It was an offense to the norms of civilized society, and fortunately the guy tricked himself out of the job. Let's hope this coalition government lasts to term, 2023, unlikely as that may seem at the moment. After all, the two main coalition parties have 320 of 630 votes, a majority of 30, not counting support from minor parties and independents. That's a small majority, but neither party has a strong incentive to dissolve the government and face new elections; if they did they would not have created this government after Salvini pulled the League out of the previous coalition. They may not like each other, but both parties have good reason to keep their government alive for as long as possible because the League leads both in polls by a lot. |
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Post by Old Badger on Sept 5, 2019 8:51:04 GMT -5
Boris Johnson's brother, Jo, announced today that he's resigning: "It’s been an honour to represent Orpington for 9 years & to serve as a minister under three PMs. In recent weeks I’ve been torn between family loyalty and the national interest - it’s an unresolvable tension & time for others to take on my roles as MP & Minister." Naturally, this was done by tweet. So no one's clear whether he's resigning effective immediately or simply stepping down at the election a few weeks from now; indeed, even his department was unable to say whether he's still Minister for Higher Education. What's noteworthy is the comment highlighted in red above. The younger Johnson (a better-looking near-clone of his brother the PM) reportedly opposes a no-deal Brexit and resigned as Transport Minister in the May Cabinet by calling for a second referendum to confirm any deal agreed with the EU--or remain. Still, "When [Jo Johnson’s] older brother ran for the leadership in the summer, he joined the campaign, apparently having accepted that Britain had to leave the European Union. He took the view that own electoral district of Orpington, on the edge of southeast London, would be likely to fall to the Brexit party unless Britain left, according to a person familiar with his thinking. Privately, he also took the view that Boris Johnson had no interest in a no-deal Brexit, and would seek a deal with the EU and then force hard-line Brexiteers in the party to vote for it. His resignation suggests that view has changed." link This puts into context the line about "family loyalty and the national interest" highlighted above. As one wag put it, this may be the first time a Member has resigned in order to spend LESS time with the family. |
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