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Post by Old Badger on Feb 28, 2020 12:41:42 GMT -5
Biden's numbers are up in the latest Christopher Newport University Watson Center Poll in Virginia: Biden - 22 Sanders - 17 Bloomberg - 13 Undecided - 13 Everyone else in single digits. The difference between Biden and Bernie is within the poll's margin of error, but so is that between Bernie and Bloomberg. The striking thing is that no one has a commanding lead, and with just days to go about 1 in 8 Dem voters is undecided. This poll perfectly reflects a WP story yesterday: "In the affluent Northern Virginia suburbs that will be ground zero for Democratic turnout in November, an 'anybody but Bernie' movement is struggling to take hold. Moderate Virginia voters have turned out in droves for Democratic candidates since the election of Donald Trump in 2016, powering the party’s takeover of the U.S. House, both chambers of the state legislature and county boards in booming suburbs such as Prince William and Loudoun counties. Now, those same voters are bouncing between presidential candidates, hoping that someone — anyone — can generate enough excitement to foil a November matchup between Sanders and Trump that they believe would be disastrous. Some see Sanders as a divisive populist who will turn off independents and moderate Republicans who are crucial in swing states such as Pennsylvania or Michigan. Others, averse to the democratic socialist’s calls for Medicare-for-all and free college tuition, say they could stay home on Election Day if Sanders is the nominee." linkThat last sentence is what has Dem office-holders here spooked, both for several marginal House districts the Dems currently hold, and for any spillovers into next year's state elections, which will determine who controls redistricting for the 2020s at both the federal and state levels. It's not likely that Trump will carry VA, even against Bernie. But the poll cited above carries a warning about how Bernie's platform could hurt down-ballot Dems here: "Sixty percent of all registered voters surveyed said they preferred to 'maintain' their health insurance instead of adopting a Medicare-for-all plan that both Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have advocated. Just 9 percent said they wanted the current health-care system to be 'ended promptly,' while 28 percent said they’d like to see it phased out over time. Only 15 percent supported canceling student loans for all borrowers, another Sanders initiative. Thirty-eight percent supported reducing loan debt, while 32 percent said student loans should be left alone." In short, Bernie's signature issues would hurt Dems here. No wonder Tim Kaine officially endorsed Biden today. |
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Post by Old Badger on Feb 29, 2020 19:05:45 GMT -5
CNN calls SC for Biden. No numbers but Wolff says the fact they could call it as soon as the polls closed (based on exit polls) suggests it's a "significant" victory. I read that as suggesting a double-digit win.
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 1, 2020 7:55:57 GMT -5
The scope of Biden's win was impressive. He carried every county in the state, and virtually every demographic/political category. Some of these Biden vs. Bernie results are surprising. Not surprising, Biden easily won among both men and women, though Sanders did better among men than women, mostly because more women than men voted for Steyer, Warren, and Klobuchar. Bernie did better among younger voters, Biden older; but Bernie carried only the voters between 17-29, even losing those 30-44. The problem for him was that those young voters made up only 11 percent of voters, while 71 percent were 45 and older. This is pretty typical in most places. Men: 48-24 Women: 49-17 White: 33-23 Black: 61-17 17-29: 26-43 (11 percent of total) 30-44: 33-29 (18 percent of total) 45-64: 51-16 (42 percent of total) 65-over: 64-11 (29 percent of total) Among the more surprising results were that college-educated and non-college-educated voters split almost exactly the same. And that Biden easily carried both very liberal and somewhat liberal voters, and easily won voters who identified the most important issue as health care, climate change, and income inequality, all issues that Bernie has put at the centerpiece of his campaign: College grads: 46-18 Non-college: 50-22 Very liberal: 42-29 Somewhat liberal: 42-23 Moderate/conservative: 54-14 Most important issue: Race relations: 54-12 Health care: 50-22 Climate change: 41-18 Income inequality: 45-23 That last finding reflects the somewhat surprising results that Biden won among those who favor a single-payer health care system as well as those who oppose it; and perhaps most shocking, among those who favor only minor changes in the economy, as well as those who want a complete overhaul. Favor single-payer: 44-29 Oppose single-payer: 55-12 Minor changes to US economic system: 47-15 Complete overhaul of economic system: 49-22 I think what all this shows is that issues per se are less important in primary voting decisions than demographics. The biggest differentiators were the race and age of the voter. The media tend to focus a lot on issues and ideology, but generally they are less important than demographics. Sorry to put cold water on more complex theories about voting. www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-south-carolina-primary/?_=dfd |
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 2, 2020 17:57:52 GMT -5
Buttigieg and Klobuchar out. Too late to make a big difference in CA on Tuesday because of early voting, but over the following weeks this is good for Biden, bad for Bernie.
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 5, 2020 20:43:38 GMT -5
Naturally, the most exciting night of the 2020 campaign takes place precisely the week I'm working in Dublin, lol. Here's the short version, starting with the long lead-in:
Since right after the 2016 election Biden was the leading Dem candidate, with Bernie at #2. All this changed I n February, when Biden did poorly in Iowa. Concerned that Berne would pull a Trump, many Dem voters latched onto Mike Bloomberg, mostly because he was promising to pour a $ billion or more into the campaign, enough to outspend Trump. That further hurt Biden. But then Bloomberg joined the debates and it was clear he was not ready for prime time. His numbers went down, and Biden's up, suddenly, at which point came the SC primary, and Biden's sweeping win. That was enough to chase nearly all the remaining candidates, many endorsing Biden to block Bernie. And their decisions were validated just three days later. As a practical matter, this race is over, though Bernie will continue his crusade to destroy the Democratic Party, probably all the way to the convention again. Let's hope this time he doesn't have the effect of helping Trump.
OK, it's nearly 2:00 am here and I have work to do in the morning. More when I get home this weekend.
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 8, 2020 13:26:55 GMT -5
"DETROIT — Sen. Bernie Sanders's political revolution shifted to emergency footing this weekend, rushing resources and staff to Michigan for a climactic battle against the surprise momentum of former vice president Joe Biden...Trying to make a final stand against Biden, Sanders canceled a planned speech on race and justice in Mississippi to attend the Detroit event, one of at least five in three days he plans while the former vice president is campaigning elsewhere." linkBiden will campaign in MI only on Monday, which means either his campaign is confident or that he's keeping a distance in case he loses. But the fact is that last week's results all but buried Sanders, and a loss here--where he narrowly won in 2016--would finish the job. So, naturally, Bernie's doing what he does best, "attacking Biden on those same grounds" he used in 2016: NAFTA and the Iraq War. His campaign spokesman was quite explicit: "I do think it is a chance to show just how outraged voters in swing states can get about Joe Biden’s record. I think Joe is going to have a problem. We are going to try to make sure he has a problem.” You'd almost imagine they missed what happened when they did this four years ago, but no...it's Bernie or bust, and if the cost is four more years of Trump, well, ya gotta break some eggs to make an omelet, right? This is part of why I hate Bernie and the Bros. Like most extremists they're just not able to distinguish between possible allies and enemies. If you're not with The Revolution, you're against it, so you're one of them. It's the attitude of the typical 4 year-old. |
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 10, 2020 14:45:58 GMT -5
Less than 5 1/2 hours until results start coming in from MI. Biden should cruise. Last night at his rally he had Gov. Whitmire, Sen. Booker, and Sen. Harris--and she was the one who made his introduction with a stemwinder from her stump speech:
Yeah, she's the leading contender for VP, and that's meaningful because Joe said last night that he sees himself as a "bridge" to a new generation of Dem leaders, including the three on stage with him. That hints that he's planning a one-term Gerry Ford-like restoration of order and legitimacy to the White House before bowing out, leaving the VP as presumptive 2024 nominee (assuming Joe lasts the whole four years). Oh, and they've got a new ad that's great:
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 10, 2020 14:48:58 GMT -5
Oh, and the numbers have shifted decisively to Biden:  |
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 10, 2020 20:47:36 GMT -5
Is this great or what! Joe Freakin' Biden, Mr. Charisma himself, is clobbering Bernie from New Yawk in all the main states. He's up by 13 points in MI, and most of Detroit apparently has not even come in yet. Out in Washtenaw Co., home of both the University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan U, Bernie is up by 15 votes (not points, votes) with about 73,000 in. In Missouri, Biden leads by 27 points, and St. Louis City barely has reported. In Mississippi, Biden's getting more than 80 percent, and Sanders is just above the 15 percent mark needed to avoid a complete shutout--and there still are some Delta counties not yet reporting.
So, Bernie: what happened to The Revolution?
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 10, 2020 21:09:52 GMT -5
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 10, 2020 21:35:16 GMT -5
Reid J. Epstein
@reidepstein
NEWS: Bernie Sanders will not speak or appear in public to address tonight's results, his campaign says.
Weighing his options, no doubt. It's over. Now Bernie has to do what he refused to do four years ago: move his own supporters to support Biden. His failure to make that effort in 2016 is how we got Trump. Let's hope the guy learned something from that, and from the shellacking he's gotten over the past two weeks.
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 10, 2020 22:31:12 GMT -5
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 10, 2020 23:05:16 GMT -5
In case you didn't think race and gender matter in primary elections:
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 12, 2020 21:21:17 GMT -5
So, another Tuesday, another bad day for Bernie. He lost every county in MI, MO, and MS, lost Idaho, and is trailing in WA by 27,000 votes with 89 percent in. The only good news for him: they finally declared him the winner in CA, but instead of a huge delegate haul he's splitting them with Biden. He should drop out, he knows he should (hence the delay in speaking after the votes this week), but he just can't give it up. I fear he's going to do just what he did last time, and grump his way all the way to the National Convention grousing about rules and rigged votes, even as his share of the votes goes down. The Revolution is dead. Bernie is now just a zombie stalking the Democrats. If he helps Trump win again he's going to cement his place in history as a vile spoiler. F**K BERNIE!
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 15, 2020 13:53:56 GMT -5
Coming up this week: the Florida primary. How's that going? Let's hear from Donna Shalala:
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 16, 2020 22:31:49 GMT -5
Mike DeWine, Gov. of Ohio, decided to call off tomorrow's primary election. A state court ruled earlier today that he can't do that. So, this evening DeWine did it anyway. You know, rule of law and all that stuff Republicans used to talk about with alter-boy innocence. Bernie's ecstatic because it's one less state in which he'll be crushed on Tuesday. In fact, he's trying to get all the states to put off their primaries. Oh, for sure it's all about public health and safety--mostly the health and safety of his dead-in-the-water campaign. He just wants to fight, fight, fight right up to the convention, and if that means primaries are held just days before that--or not at all--so much the better. We're well along the road to becoming a Third World political system. Who'da thunk it just a few years ago? Story: www.cleveland.com/open/2020/03/citing-health-emergency-ohio-officials-to-order-polls-closed-on-election-day-despite-judges-ruling.html |
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 17, 2020 17:48:16 GMT -5
Today's primary in Florida will allow a test of a hypothesis I've had about Bernie's success with Latinx voters: that it's because until now they've mostly been Mexican-American, and that this success will be hard to replicate with others. To recap: "He received roughly half of the votes cast by Hispanics in Nevada, California and Michigan. In Texas, he won nearly 40 percent of their votes. [But] Biden leads Sanders among Hispanic likely voters in Florida, 48 percent to 37 percent, according to a survey conducted this month for Telemundo by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy." WP storyThe difference: "one word: socialism...While the Latino populations in the states that have already held their primaries are heavily Mexican American,Florida’s population is heavily Cuban American and Puerto Rican. The state is also home to many families that have fled strife in countries such as Mexico, Columbia, Guatemala and Venezuela." Mexico long has had its own social democratic parties, currently grouped under the National Regeneration Movement of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. So supporting a social democrat for US President hardly would be novel, especially for Mexican-American immigrants. By contrast, the other groups tend to identify socialism with a string of repressive regimes, particularly Castro's Cuba, Chavez's (now Maduro's) Venezuela, and Ortega's Nicaragua. The GOP has been in Florida advertising Bernie's socialism and his comments in support of Cuba, China, etc. It's got the local Dems so concerned about November that "the Florida Democratic Party has rushed to try to counter this messaging by training Spanish-speaking surrogates who can try to explain the nuances of democratic socialism." Yeah, explaining the nuances is never a good place to be in an election. So, I'm going to be looking at exit polls to see how Bernie fares with Latinx in FL. Polls close in most of the state (except the panhandle, which is on CDT) at 7 EDT, less than 15 minutes from now. |
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 17, 2020 19:09:18 GMT -5
FL called for Biden, with a nearly 3-1 margin and leading in every county that's reported so far. IL call delayed because Cook Co. is keeping polls open an extra hour, so should be called promptly at 9:00 ET. Bernie's facing a third trouncing in consecutive Tuesdays, and after tonight will be much too far behind to every catch up. He should quit now, but he won't.
EDIT: NYT calls IL for Biden, although polls still are open in Cook Co. He's up 56-39 at the moment. Before the night's over he'll have well over 1,000 pledged delegates, and a virtual lock on the nomination. Time for Bernie to do the right thing, both for beating Trump and for saving voters from having to risk their health to cast meaningless votes. The party's over, it's time to call it a day. Bye-Bye Bernie.
EDIT 2: With virtually every vote counted, Biden has beaten Bernie end EVERY county in Florida. That's on top of sweeps in MI, MO, and MS last week. That's rare to happen at all, but this is at least the fourth time in two weeks--and it's looking as if it might happen in IL, too. Go away Bernie!
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 17, 2020 21:36:12 GMT -5
Today's been my Saint's Name Day, and I've been able to do a bit of celebrating, despite the coronavirus. Picked up some soda bread and chocolates shaped and flavored like pints of Guinness (with white chocolate "foam") for dessert. And now I'm going to celebrate the nail in the coffin of Bernie's Vanity Tour II with a nice glass of Jamison's, straight up. *Ahhhhh*  |
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 17, 2020 22:10:58 GMT -5
Today's primary in Florida will allow a test of a hypothesis I've had about Bernie's success with Latinx voters: that it's because until now they've mostly been Mexican-American, and that this success will be hard to replicate with others. So, AP has had a look at exit poll data and...I was right! "Latinos were roughly 20% of the state’s Democratic voters — 21% of them identified as Cuban, 33% as Puerto Rican and the rest had family ties to other countries. Not only did Biden win Latinos in Florida overall, he got 66% of Puerto Ricans and 57% of Cubans, taking away a pillar of strength from Sanders...Biden also pulled about even with Sanders in Arizona, where Latinos made up 28% of the state’s Democratic primary voters." AP storyNice to see my three Poli Sci degrees were not wasted, lol. In other news: "Biden, 77, preserved his strength among African Americans in Florida and Illinois. But across those two states and Arizona, he also won women, voters over 45 and moderates and conservatives, groups that make up majorities of Democratic primary voters." Basically, the broad Democratic coalition is behind Biden. What's changed since Bernie's previous run is that white men without a college degree have shifted from Bernie to Biden. That group also tends to identify as moderate or conservative. Basically, they voted last time for the more lefty candidate, and this time for the more righty one. In fact, ideologically, they jumped from the candidate on Hillary's left to a candidate to Hillary's right. Ironically, many of those blue-collar Sanders voters of 2016 described Hillary as "too liberal". What this suggests is that the main difference is XX vs XY. |
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 18, 2020 22:24:24 GMT -5
Michael Tomasky of the NYT writes that Bernie's planning a last stand in NY:
Tomasky goes through the litany of these primaries, each won by the "establishment" candidate: Mike Dukakis - Jesse Jackson (1988), the primary in which Ed Koch said any Jew who voted for Jackson was "nuts" and endorsed Al Gore, who got 10 percent of the vote; Bill Clinton - Jerry Brown (1992), in which the CA Governor and son of a Governor tried his hand at running as an outsider, and lost; Al Gore - Bill Bradley (2000), in which the former Knicks star, endorsed by Koch, also tried to position himself as an outsider, and lost by 2-to-1. He reminds readers that "New York is a liberal state, but it’s a liberal establishment state. It’s the home of Wall Street. It’s where Democratic candidates come to raise money. Get on an Acela heading from New York to Washington some Monday afternoon while Congress is in session and count the House members heading back to work after a weekend spent trawling for checks in Manhattan."
I doubt this history will dissuade Sanders. Sure, he talks about the existential need to remove Trump. But his two campaigns have been about something else, according to Politico: "If Sanders remains in the race, it will be in part to keep his 'political revolution' alive. According to people familiar with his thinking, Sanders will not only consider what’s best for his campaign, but also the progressive movement." And his followers share that view, such as the Chair of Our Revolution: “The number of delegates you have, the number of people on the platform committee is absolutely critical.” Right. Getting enough people on the Platform Committee is "absolutely critical" if your aim is the intellectual exercise of changing the party platform--which is forgotten as soon as it's adopted. Beating Donald Trump? Nice to have, but...
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 19, 2020 15:37:27 GMT -5
Matt Bai scores a bullseye in the WP today:
I added this comment to that article:
Thank you, Matt Bai! This is the lesson of the last two Democratic nomination contests. Unfortunately, many of Bernie's supporters cannot accept that they are a small minority of the US electorate, so they invent conspiracy theories (DNC! Obama!) to explain why their guy keeps losing. Last time enough of them went off the rails and supported Putin's Other Puppet, Jill Stein, to land Trump in the White House. Is it too much to hope that four years of watching how that worked out will make them take their votes more seriously this time? The answer partly depends on Bernie. If he remains the childishly grousing presence he was at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, probably not enough; if he acts like a responsible adult political leader this time, maybe. Let's hope he's learned from experience, finally.
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 19, 2020 15:41:17 GMT -5
And then there were two: Tulsi Gabbard now has dropped out and endorsed Biden. I believe all of the one-time candidates are now supporting Biden, except for Warren. I assume she's trying to extort promises of appointments for her favorites, just as she did with Hillary in 2016; her view is "personnel = policy" so that's what she focuses on. Bernie needs to get the hell out of the way this, time.
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 21, 2020 15:33:56 GMT -5
The post-mortem on the Sanders campaign now is officially underway, with the NYT publishing a long piece today, with all the necessary ingredients: internal squabbles among the campaign staff, turf battles, a stubborn candidate, strategic errors, and unforeseeable events. If you've read one you've read them all. Well, not really, it just feels that way. In this case there were those who wanted an all-out attack on Joe Biden vs. those who didn't, notably Bernie and Jane; those who wanted to engage across the Super Tuesday states and those who saw the trajectory as Iowa --> New Hampshire --> Nevada --> California; and most important, perhaps, those who wanted a more conciliatory approach to the Democratic Party in order to expand the candidate's appeal and those who wanted to keep pounding away at the Party "establishment"--again notably Bernie. One remarkable paragraph making the rounds on Twitter summarizes the problem:
Yes, he made a Civil War analogy. Anyone who thought Bernie was just another Democrat, only further to the left than most, really has not been paying attention. His goal has been to transform the Democratic Party into a Social Democratic Party or bust. He made one attempt at unity when, after the win in Nevada that had him set as all but the presumptive nominee, Bernie's speech "sounded a unifying note, focusing on his 'multigenerational, multiracial coalition.' ” That's when his advisors wanted him to turn to the fall campaign and unite the party. But that's not Bernie:
This is why Bernie's never has been convincing as a possible President. He simply lacks either the ability or the willingness to pull together the kind of broad coalition it takes to win a national election and--more importantly--to govern. Bernie's a perfect back-bencher, prodding colleagues on policy, but that's not what a President does. Even Trump was better at building a coalition than Bernie is, which is why he's got all those right-wing pastors in his corner, despite his utter immorality in every facet of life: not being an ideologue, he can give factions what they want to get them to provide him with political support he needs. Bernie, bless him, just can't do that. He's a classic moralist, a bit like the idealistic Pasha in Pasternak's Dr. Zhivago who eventually becomes the unbending Strelnikov. Right is right, wrong is wrong, and I'm right. That's not a recipe for success at this level.
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 24, 2020 21:26:05 GMT -5
The Zombie from Vermont still pretending to life:
In the midst of an existential crisis with an idiot at the helm, this forlorn backbench schnorrer once more wants to continue his vanity campaign to damage the nominee...just like last time.
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 28, 2020 16:38:37 GMT -5
The danger here is that it's allowing the Dem primaries to simmer well into the summer, when this race already is effectively over. But there's nothing else to do...unless you're Wisconsin, where the Governor wants to run an all-mail election with just 10 days preparation and the GOP is happy to hold an election where few even show up. *sheesh*
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Post by Old Badger on Mar 28, 2020 21:24:40 GMT -5
Sure, polls in March are mostly for the fun of it, but I love seeing Fox have to report this:
The thing I like here is that this is looking a lot like 2018: "Biden is the choice among liberals, non-whites, moderates, suburban women, and voters ages 65 and over. Trump leads among conservatives, white evangelical Christians, those who attend religious services regularly, white men, and whites without a college degree." The moderates and suburban women (a big overlap here) powered the Dems win in the congressional races. If they can hold them this year there's an excellent chance that Trump will lose not only the popular vote, but the damned Electoral College, too.
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Post by Old Badger on Apr 2, 2020 21:57:01 GMT -5
This is a long piece from HuffPost by lefty journalist Daniel Marans. It's a pretty thorough critique of the Sanders campaign, but the summary paragraph is:
As one progressive strategist put it: “His greatest strength is his greatest weakness, which is that his independence and stubbornness mean he is not agile enough to respond to shifting moods.” Many of the issues raised are typical for post-mortems, but two things that stick out for me are more fundamental, and specific to Bernie. First, is failure to connect to the progressive history of the Democratic Party:
At that point, Sanders WAS the Democratic establishment, but unlike Trump in 2016 he refused to claim leadership. All he had to do was reach out to the broader Democratic electorate, but he could not do it. As one pro-Sanders strategist told Marans: “If you constantly describe yourself as marginalized, people start to think of you as marginalized and that maybe you shouldn’t be in charge.” And that turned out to be particularly important for the second major issue: Sanders's failure to attract support from middle-aged and older African-Americans, which hurt him in South Carolina, and doomed him on Super Tuesday. He got off to a good start, but failed to follow through:
AA voters, in particular, are intent on removing Trump, not starting a revolution. As one politician put it, “If the house is on fire, you put out the fire first, then you figure out what to do with the house.”
Now, this is not some "moderate, establishment Democrat" making this case. It's a guy who's been a contributor to In These Times and Al-Jazeera, and worked on David Schuster's "Take Action News" program, i.e., a real lefty. But even many of the progressives he quotes agree that Bernie's insistence on attacking the Democratic Party rather than linking his program to it's long progressive history was a strategic mistake. And that mistake stems from Sanders himself. He likes being the outsider, it's his comfort zone, and that's fine as a backbench Senator. But a President can't be an outsider in his/her own party. Even Trump figured that out. And this is why Bernie never will be President of the United States.
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Post by Old Badger on Apr 14, 2020 0:06:52 GMT -5
So Bernie finally endorsed Biden today. If he'd done the same in 2016 when it was apparent after Super Tuesday that he was going to lose perhaps we wouldn't have had four years of Trump. But don't say that around Berners; they're still fragile and in denial on that subject...and did I mention defensive?
Meanwhile Liz is repeating her rope-a-dope act of four years ago, holding what she assumes is her coveted endorsement while trying to secure jobs in the next Administration for her chosen supporters. Maybe they should offer her the job of Director of the Office of Personnel Management since she's so intent on playing Head of HR.
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