|
Post by Old Badger on Jul 31, 2019 19:38:21 GMT -5
While Boris threatened the EU over the Irish backstop (“The UK is leaving the EU on 31 October whatever the circumstances. We will work energetically for a deal but the backstop must be abolished. If we are not able to reach an agreement then we will of course have to leave the EU without a deal”), and the EU tells him to go to hell ("During a phone call on Tuesday, Barnier told the Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, that there was no chance of the EU changing its position or offering a 'managed no deal' through side-deals to cushion the economic impact") link, Members of Congress are warning Johnson that it's not going to help, either, if Ireland's interests are sacrificed; here are some quotes from The Guardian: “The American dimension to the Good Friday agreement is indispensable,” said Richard Neal, who is co-chair of the 54-strong Friends of Ireland caucus in Congress, and also chairs the powerful House ways and means committee, with the power to hold up a trade deal indefinitely. "We oversee all trade agreements as part of our tax jurisdiction,” Neal, a Democratic congressman from Massachusetts, said in a phone interview. He pointed out that such a complex trade deal could take four or five years, even without the Northern Ireland issue. “I would have little enthusiasm for entertaining a bilateral trade agreement with the UK, if they were to jeopardise the agreement.”
Pete King, the Republican co-chair of the Friends of Ireland group, said the threat to abandon the backstop and endanger the open border was a “needless provocation”, adding that his party would have no compunction about defying Trump over the issue...“First of all trade deals are always difficult,” the New York Republican said in a telephone interview. “There’s any number of other labour and environmental issues that get brought up. But to have a solid block on one particular issue would make it very, very difficult to get it through Congress, unless the border issue is resolved.”
The Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has said that a US-UK trade deal has “no chance whatsoever” of passing in Congress. Over the weekend, a committee of former members of Congress and foreign policy officials said “all of Irish America will support the Speaker right down the line”...The Irish embassy has been energetically lobbying in defence of the 1998 peace agreement. The ambassador, Daniel Mulhall, said he has been pushing at an open door. “There is a genuine groundswell of opinion within Irish America in favour of the Good Friday agreement and against anything that would be perceived to undermine that agreement,” Mulhall said. “Wherever I go, wherever I speak to Irish-American audiences, the first question is always to do with Brexit,” the ambassador added. “And they always reflect a deep concern about Brexit.”
So, basically, Boris can't count on the EU, the US, or the Republic to bail him out between now and October 31. He's boxed himself in with "no ifs, no buts" promises to the Tory base, but it's not clear even he is willing to bring on the highly-likely major recession that awaits a no-deal Brexit. Which is why there's a likelihood of an election sooner rather than later. If so, it should be a slam-dunk for Labour, except...Jeremy Corbyn: "On Sunday Corbyn said Labour would campaign for a second referendum and to remain in the EU if Johnson was proposing a no-deal Brexit but said the party would 'reopen talks with the EU' about a Brexit deal if it won an election." link No you damned twit! The country has turned against Brexit, so quit muddying the message! Listen to Emily Thornberry, Labour's shadow foreign secretary, who said this in an interview in Australia: It should be put back to the British people so they can be asked: is this what you voted for? Because if you did, that’s fine. But we don’t think it is what you voted for. I’m firmly of the view that Labour’s policy should be that whatever deal a government comes up with – no ifs, no buts, as Boris Johnson says – we should put it back to the people, we should have another referendum, and that Labour should campaign to remain. When I’ve been talking to people here in Australia … what’s really come home to me is that one of the reasons for the increased success of the Australian economy … is that you increased your trade with your closest neighbours, and yet in Britain what we’re doing is walking away from our closest neighbours and our biggest trading allies. People that I’ve spoken to here appreciate that, and I have to say practically all of them … have said if we get an opportunity to remain in the European Union, we should take it. Because if we don’t, we’re off our bloody rockers.
Yes, "Off Our Bloody Rockers" should be put to music and used as the anthem of the Brexiteers. Jeremy: listen to her, and get back on to your own bloody rocker!
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 1, 2019 10:15:14 GMT -5
The daily bad news continues in London. "Britain has a one in three chance of plunging into recession as uncertainty over Brexit drags down the economy, the Bank of England has warned. Keeping interest rates on hold as the risks to the economy mount, the central bank said business investment was stalling, while heightened international trade tensions and a slowdown in the global economy was also having an impact on UK growth." link Fears similar to the Fed's. Meanwhile, the pound continues to sink: "The pound fell below $1.21 for the first time since January 2017 as concerns mounted that the UK is heading for a no-deal Brexit...The pound was also affected by a bleak manufacturing survey that showed factory managers cutting production at the fastest pace since 2012." link These two are, of course, linked, as auto and other manufacturers close down UK plants and move production to EU countries. And no-deal seems to be gaining the upper hand, at least among the Tories: "A campaign group called Stand Up 4 Brexit has the signatures of 46 Conservative MPs on a statement calling on the prime minister to 'commit to leaving the EU on 31st October and abandon Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement as dead'...Mark Francois, one of 28 Tory MPs who repeatedly held out against May’s deal, said Johnson had been very clear at a meeting of European Research Group MPs that the withdrawal agreement in its entirety was 'dead'. He told the Telegraph’s Chopper’s Brexit podcast: 'He was absolutely emphatic about it, so we took him at his word. I don’t think you could revive the withdrawal agreement realistically. Even if you took the backstop out, there are too many other things that are wrong with it.' " linkYep, despite the occasional hint from Johnson that the holdup on a deal was the backstop, it's apparent that there are enough votes in the Tory backbenches to sink any deal, with our without the backstop. These are mostly English Nationalists who resent being part of a larger collective that negates their imagined self-importance. They've never really adjusted to the loss of The Empire, but now risk losing much of the Union. Apparently, they no longer care, they just want to have their primal scream...kind of like Trump's soon-to-be-dead white nationalists.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 1, 2019 14:46:29 GMT -5
More bad Brexit news today: "Factory output in Britain has fallen at the fastest rate in seven years as the risks posed to the economy by a no-deal Brexit rise and as global demand falters...Output and new orders shrank as factories came under pressure from the high level of uncertainty over Britain’s future trading relationship with the EU and from the US-China trade war, which has caused a sharp slowdown in international trade. New orders fell as businesses used up materials stockpiled in the run-up to the original 29 March Brexit deadline rather than place new orders. Alongside a drop-off in global demand because of the trade war, the survey also found EU-based companies were switching to non-UK suppliers to avoid potential Brexit disruption." linkAs in the US, where manufacturing entered a technical recession (two quarters of negative growth) earlier this year, manufacturing in the UK is being hit by two self-imposed wounds, one from each side of the Atlantic. For more than 7 decades the US and UK were sources of stability in the world economy; today they're destabilizing it for no obvious reason. How did both countries manage to go nuts at the same time? Doctoral dissertations will be written for years addressing this question.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 2, 2019 10:01:27 GMT -5
A by-election in a Tory district in Wales cut Johnson's House majority to 1 yesterday, ad the Liberal-Democrats took the seat. The incumbent had been forced to face a new election after he was found to have fudged an expense report and was recalled by constituents. But the Tories re-nominated him, and his previous 8,000+-vote plurality sank to a 1,425-vote deficit. The L-D candidate was supported by other overtly anti-Brexit parties, but the Brexit and UKIP parties drained away just enough votes to provide the margin of victory. The three pro-Brexit parties actually got 468 votes more than the L-D + Labour vote. Still, the fact that this conservative district voted almost exactly 50-50 between pro- and anti-Brexit candidates should be a warning to Johnson.
The result of this election is that the Conservatives plus their (Northern Ireland) Democratic Unionist allies have a working majority of 1. Actually, there are only 321 of them, but because the 7 Sinn Fein MPs from NI refuse on principle to take their seats, and the 3 Deputy Speakers (1 Conservative, 2 Labour) count for their party totals but don't vote, the Opposition amounts to 320. It's almost impossible to imagine the House passing any Brexit legislation at this point, which suggests a new general election may be coming.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 2, 2019 22:04:54 GMT -5
Boris Johnson faced a grave threat to his control of parliament on Friday as he was warned that Conservative rebels could cross the House of Commons to foil Brexit in the aftermath of a byelection that reduced his working majority to just one MP...One of the most prominent Conservative supporters of a second referendum told the Guardian on Friday he was actively considering defecting to the Lib Dems or sitting as an independent, a move that would leave Johnson at the helm of a minority government. Dr Phillip Lee, the former justice minister, who first suggested he could quit the party in his own podcast, On the House, told the Guardian he was not alone among colleagues considering defecting or resigning if the government pursued no deal. 'I have things to think about over the summer, but it is not just me,' he said. 'There are a number of colleagues who are spending the summer reflecting on what is the right way for them to confront this no-deal scenario. Of course, it is difficult for all of us because we joined the Conservative party, but it has morphed into something a lot different to what I joined in 1992.'” linkJohnson has at least problems here: (1) By committing himself to Brexit on October 31, deal or no-deal, he's taken an extreme position, one opposed by a majority of the House. He may be gambling that the EU will reopen negotiations rather than face a no-deal exit, but there seems to be no sign of that in Brussels. By contrast, he's freaking out a number of Tory MPs, some of whom are likely to cross the aisle over the issue, even at the expense of their parliamentary careers. (2) He's further alienated moderate Tories by filling key Cabinet posts with hard-line Brexiteers and right-wingers, whose policy positions are not mainstream within the party. And all that on top of the by-election outcome feeds into (3) fear that Johnson and the Tories will lose the next election, while likely is coming soon. As to that last: "One former cabinet minister said they believed swathes of seats were now at risk, including Cheltenham, Chippenham, Guildford and even Surrey Heath, the seat of Michael Gove. 'Threatening no deal essentially hands our core seats across the south-west, south-east and south coast to the Lib Dems,' the ex-minister said. 'We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think [strategist] Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.' Other Tory MPs have pointed out privately that the majority of seats where the Lib Dems are in second place are held by Conservative MPs." That final sentence is important because it means that the Lib-Dems are not a threat to Labour, but any gains they make will come mostly at the expense of the Conservatives. The Tory-Brexit Mess continues after three years, like a terrible soap opera.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 3, 2019 9:45:25 GMT -5
This is how the Johnson Government intends to "prepare" for a no-deal Brexit: "English councils have been told to designate a 'Brexit lead' to work with central government to prepare for the possibility that the UK will leave the European Union with no deal at the end of October. But a £20m funding pledge to help authorities step up preparations was immediately described as an “insult”, as the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) was forced to concede that the full amount had already been pledged in previous announcements...Shared equally, it would amount to about £57,000 for each of England’s 353 councils and combined authorities, according to the Guardian’s calculation." linkSo, an average of about $60,000 for each city, town, and borough to prepare for what the Government itself says could be a major economic shock, none of it really NEW money, and only for England--no word on what Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are supposed to do, but then they're mostly Celtic--not true-blue Anglo-Saxons--so who really cares?
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 3, 2019 20:43:53 GMT -5
"Schools may have to close, exams could be disrupted and fresh food for pupils’ meals could run short because of panic buying with prices soaring by up to 20%, according to a secret Department for Education analysis of the risks of a no-deal Brexit obtained by the Observer. The five-page document – marked 'Official Sensitive' and with the instruction 'Do Not Circulate' – also raises the possibility of teacher absences caused by travel disruption, citing schools in Kent as particularly at risk. On the dangers of food shortages to schools, it suggests that informing the public of the risks could make matters even worse." link Amazing! The Government knows the risks it's running, but it's decided not to share them with the public because it "could make matters worse." Translation: voter support for Brexit would fall. The whole thing is nuts. Meanwhile, on the assumption that an early election is coming soon, but that it will be hard for the Remain parties to coordinate nationally non-compete agreements like the one that succeeded in Wales this week: "On Sunday the People’s Vote campaign reveals plans to target about 100 marginal seats across the country in which it will tell Remain voters to back pro-referendum MPs, from whatever party, who are under threat from pro-Brexit Tories or Brexit party candidates – and candidates in favour of a second public vote who could realistically replace a pro-Brexit MP...The campaign is to focus on marginal seats where it believes tactical voting could make the difference, setting up local campaign groups and digital targeting to identify key voters...People who back another referendum will be encouraged where necessary to vote for a party they would never normally back. “In some cases we will be asking Labour supporters to vote for other parties such as the Liberal Democrats. In many others we will be asking supporters of the Liberal Democrats, the Greens or others to vote Labour,” the documents say." Good strategy! link
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 5, 2019 17:05:10 GMT -5
"Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal Brexit is his “central scenario”, European diplomats have been told, amid hardening evidence in Westminster that the government is expecting to crash out of the EU. Brussels diplomats briefed after a meeting between the prime minister’s chief envoy and senior EU figures in Brussels said that Britain’s refusal to compromise was understood to have been clear to those attending. Instead David Frost, the government’s new chief Europe adviser, is said to have sought discussions on how negotiations could be reset after the UK crashes out on 31 October." linkThis is no surprise, of course. The people who put Johnson into No. 10 are the hard-line Brexiteers, after all, and they really don't want a deal. And they're willing to trash Parliament and its rules to get what they do want: "The prime minister’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, instructed special advisers across the government to keep on top of preparations for a no deal Brexit early on Monday morning and attacked Philip Hammond, the former chancellor, for failing to get the country ready. Over the weekend, it became clear he believes that Johnson could simply refuse to resign in the event of losing a no-confidence motion and schedule a general election for November – after leaving the EU at the end of October." Yes, first they crash out, then they hold an election. So even if they lose (which seems likely) they still get their Brexit. Of course, if Labour were led by someone more sensible than Corbyn they might promise to move quickly to re-enter the EU, but Corbyn's basically a leaver, so he'll never do that. Of course, the alternative is that Scotland and Northern Ireland could leave the UK altogether. No doubt the Queen will love Boris if that happens, and she no longer can go to Balmoral Castle as a reigning monarch but only as an honored guest of a foreign government.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 9, 2019 10:54:12 GMT -5
"Fears that the UK could be heading for its first recession in a decade have been stoked by grim official figures showing that the economy contracted in the second quarter of 2019. Brexit uncertainty, car plant shutdowns and the running down of stock built up before the original end of March deadline for Britain’s EU exit resulted in gross domestic product shrinking by 0.2% in the three months ending in June. News from the Office for National Statistics of the first fall in quarterly GDP in six and a half years sparked immediate speculation that a further bout of Brexit jitters leading up to the new 31 October departure date could lead to a second successive quarter of negative growth – the technical definition of a recession." linkGosh, who could have predicted this? It's the first hint of where the UK is headed. Also worth noting: for the first time in several years opinion polling in Scotland shows a majority in favor of independence. Just another warning sign that the Brexiteers plan to ignore. But they're not alone. Both Labour and the Lib Dems are playing their own foolish game. As anti-Brexit Tories are maneuvering to line up support for a no-confidence motion in the Johnson Government leading to a national unity government to stop a no-deal crash-out and act as caretaker until a new election this fall, the two main opposition parties are instead jockeying for their own positions in the run-up to those elections. The Tories would like to name one of their senior members, preferably Ken Clarke, the senior MP (aka, Father of the House) as interim PM, effectively ending his career, a not insignificant sacrifice. But "Labour has said any MP wishing to stop no deal should give their backing to Jeremy Corbyn’s attempt to form a government. However, on Friday the Lib Dem Chuka Umunna, a former Labour MP, claimed a 'substantial minority' of his former colleagues would not support Corbyn being prime minister." link A coalition of Labour, Lib Dem, rebel Conservative, SNP, Independent, and Green MPs might be able to form a majority and take the reins of power from Johnson. But these games likely will make that impossible. Neither of the main opposition parties seems to be willing to sacrifice what it sees as a benign electoral environment for them to save the country from a devastating no-deal Brexit. Stupid.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 17, 2019 22:02:55 GMT -5
Well, even though Parliament is out for its summer recess, lots has been happening. Jeremy Corbyn sent a letter to MPs begging them to back a unity government headed by him with a mandate to get an extension from the EU and hold a new election as the easiest way to stop a no-deal Brexit. link However, a number of anti-Brexit Tories and Independents have said they cannot put Corbyn into No. 10 under any circumstances. Still, there is continuing interest in forming such a government under a more neutral PM, and Labour sources are hinting Corbyn will agree to such a plan if his bid fails. Some Labour and Tory MPs have given up on that strategy and instead are working on ways to pass legislation blocking the Government from leaving without a deal, forcing an extension and effectively requiring a new election. And there is a group of pro-Brexit but anti-no-deal MPs in both the major parties hoping that Johnson will present a deal in time for them to vote for it; this includes some who voted against May's deal previously, but now are ready for anything that can pass. The Guardian gives the following assessment of each plan's chances of success: Corbyn-led temporary government: one in five Government of national unity: two in five New laws blocking no deal: three in five A Brexit deal is agreed: two in five
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 18, 2019 13:54:04 GMT -5
"An increasingly likely “no-deal” Brexit could wreak far-reaching havoc on Britain’s economy, infrastructure and social fabric, according to classified government documents leaked to a British newspaper. Food and social-care prices would rise, while medical supplies could face severe delays given the fact that most of Britain’s medicines come through English Channel crossings, the Sunday Times says the documents indicate. Border delays would interrupt fuel supplies. Ports would only partially recover after three months of severe disruptions, leaving traffic at 50 to 70 percent of the current flow. Those are just a few of the impacts predicted by 'Operation Yellowhammer,' which the London-based paper says was compiled this month by Britain’s Cabinet Office and available to those with security clearances on a 'need to know' basis." link What the hell kind of "democratic" government pursues policies that it knows will damage its own people for years to come? In the UK the answer seems to be: one led by a man with no principles, little knowledge, and dependent on a cadre of ideological kooks to stay in office. Basically, the UK has been pushed to the precipice of disaster by a few overage frat boys who think it would be fun to try restoring the glory of the Victorian Empire in the 21st Century.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 20, 2019 23:27:04 GMT -5
The European Union has rebuffed Boris Johnson’s attempts to tear up the Irish backstop, in a coordinated response that appeared to close the door on further meaningful Brexit negotiations...The president of the European council, Donald Tusk, accused the British government of failing to admit that its policies would lead to the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland...In a sign of the EU’s carefully coordinated response, the European commission issued its own statement minutes later saying it shared Tusk’s view...Johnson had dashed any prospect of an early compromise in a letter on Monday night when he called on the EU to scrap the backstop, which he said was anti-democratic and 'inconsistent with the sovereignty of the UK as a state'." linkAll this is Kabuki. Johnson knows Ireland will not allow the EU to abandon the backstop out of (justified) fear of re-igniting The Troubles. You'd think Johnson, as PM of the UK that includes Northern Ireland, would be concerned, but he seems not to care, perhaps simply exhibiting the usual English disdain for all their Celtic subjects. In any case, all he's doing now is setting the stage to lay blame for the coming no-deal disaster at the feet of others: “One thing that slightly, I think, complicates the picture is that our EU friends still clearly think that there is a possibility that parliament will block Brexit. And as long as they think there’s a possibility that parliament will block Brexit they are unlikely to be minded to make the concessions that we need.” If there's a crash-out and the anticipated chaos becomes reality, Johnson will blame those in Parliament who opposed no-deal for stiffening EU resistance. Heads I win, tails you lose. Idiot.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 27, 2019 11:15:55 GMT -5
Maybe--just maybe--the opposition parties finally are getting their collective act together. Today Jeremy Corbyn met with representatives of all the opposition parties and agreed to back off a non-confidence vote for now and instead back legislation mandating an extension of Article 50 to avoid a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31. This was not his first choice, but the Lib-Dem, SNP, Change, and independent MPs apparently persuaded him that it would be easier to pass legislation than to win a vote on no-confidence, which would require Tory support. Meanwhile, it appears Boris Johnson's Government is preparing for new elections this fall, presumably to avoid having to go to the polls after it's become apparent what a costly move that would be. If the international stakes weren't so high, this would be fun to watch. www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/27/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-prioritise-legislation-stop-no-deal-meeting-opposition-parties-labour
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 28, 2019 8:19:23 GMT -5
Faced with likely defeat on his no-deal Brexit plan in September, Boris Johnson decided to pull a coup d'état: delaying the next session of Parliament until Oct. 14, at which time there will be a Queen's Speech, laying out the new Government's agenda. Effectively, that would prevent the House of Commons from acting to block Brexit on Oct. 31, even though a clear majority opposes leaving without a deal. It's not clear how MPs can prevent Johnson from doing what he wants, although the Speaker called the move a "constitutional outrage" and even some Tories were tending toward the apoplectic. What's clear is that the Brexiteers intend to force the UK out of the EU before either Parliament blocks them or Johnson has to face a new election, which his party almost certainly will lose. That's going to leave the next Government stuck with the chaos of no deal, while Johnson and the hard-liners sit on the Opposition benches blaming them for the mess.
This no longer is just a Brexit crisis. It's now a full-fledged constitutional crisis. Already some parliamentarians have appealed to a court (notably, in Edinburgh) seeking to force Johnson to re-open Parliament on time. And the judge has agreed to take up the case. The UK now has a Supreme Court, but its a recent invention whose power in a system built on the principle of parliamentary sovereignty has yet to be tested. Maybe this will become their Marbury v. Madison.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 29, 2019 12:43:16 GMT -5
It's impossible to keep up with the unfolding story of Boris's Coup, so here's a summary from The Guardian: The former de facto [Tory] deputy prime minister David Lidington joined those condemning prorogation, describing it as an attempt to gag parliament. “If this had been done by a Labour government, Jacob Rees-Mogg would have been leading the denunciations of it,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
Lord Young quit as a [Tory] government whip in the Lords over Boris Johnson’s decision, saying it “risks undermining the fundamental role of parliament” in his resignation letter.
Shortly after, Ruth Davidson confirmed her resignation as leader of the Scottish Conservatives. Although she stressed the decision had been made for family reasons, in her resignation letter she acknowledged: “I have not hidden the conflict I have felt over Brexit.”
An attempt was made in a Scottish court to reverse the decision to suspend parliament. Lord Doherty, presiding over the hearing, said he would consider the issue overnight and give his ruling at 10am tomorrow.
The defence secretary, Ben Wallace, was caught on mic apparently admitting the real reason parliament was prorogued. Speaking to his French counterpart at a summit in Helsinki, Wallace could be heard explaining the decision. He said: “Parliament has been very good at saying what it doesn’t want. It has been awful at saying what it wants. That’s the reality. So eventually any leader has to, you know, try.”
Momentum, the pro-Jeremy Corbyn movement, called for street protests and blockades to stop what it called a coup. Laura Parker, the group’s national coordinator, said: “Our message to Johnson is this: if you steal our democracy, we’ll shut down the streets.”
Corbyn said parliament will “legislate rapidly” on Tuesday, when it resumes, to prevent Boris Johnson from suspending parliament and to stop a no-deal Brexit. Speaking to Sky News, the Labour leader described the move as “a smash-and-grab raid against our democracy”.
Essentially, the UK is looking more and more like Hungary or Poland, countries in which "populist" right-wing governments have worked assiduously to undermine competing institutions, including parliaments and the courts, in order to further their own ends. And it's not just in Europe: the Trump Administration is doing the same here. It's a dangerous time of elective democracy.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Aug 30, 2019 0:02:50 GMT -5
"Johnson may have overplayed his hand: "A growing number of senior Tory rebels have signalled they are now prepared to back urgent legislation to thwart a no-deal Brexit after Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament...Ministers privately admit the battle to block anti-no-deal legislation in the Commons next week appears all but lost, but efforts to frustrate the rebels are focusing on the House of Lords. Opposition peers expect Tories in the Lords to attempt to filibuster the legislation, which will need to have passed through all its parliamentary stages and received royal assent before parliament is suspended or it will fall." linkDoes this sound familiar? It should: it's Mitch McConnell's approach to "governing" the US. But there the opponents have a plan: "The Liberal Democrats’ leader in the Lords, Dick Newby, said the government could be defeated. 'The government’s tactic to stop the bill in the Lords could be to pack it with hostile amendments and then attempt to filibuster the bill. On our side we can interrupt and put the amendments to a vote and, depending on how many there are, we could even sit all night every day through Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. We have the troops and we have the camp beds. People will be queuing up to stay'.” Yes, unlike here, where since "reforms" decades ago a filibuster really just requires a vote against taking up a bill, in the UK the old system of forcing the filibusterers to hold the floor day after day while the Lords remain in session can still work. It's just possible that Johnson's plan to force a no-deal Brexit, even though he has no mandate from the voters or Parliament to take that course, may be stopped. That would be a triumph for representative democracy, one badly needed these days.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 1, 2019 17:24:39 GMT -5
There's now an open civil war in the Tory party: "Boris Johnson is prepared to blow up his own parliamentary majority and withdraw the whip from dozens of Conservative MPs if they back plans to stop no-deal Brexit, Tory whips have warned potential rebels, in an extreme move by Downing Street that would pave the way for an imminent general election. As hostilities escalated, Johnson also signalled how serious his intention is to follow through the threat of deselection by abruptly ripping up plans for a meeting with rebellious former ministers, including Philip Hammond and David Gauke, that had been billed as a last-ditch effort to limit support for the action in parliament...No 10 believes the nuclear threat of deselection, and its unprecedented consequence of removing the whip of a former chancellor and justice secretary just weeks after they left government, has a serious chance of spooking MPs and wiping the majority for any no-deal legislation in parliament...A source close to the MPs under threat of deselection said they would not be deterred: 'This is sheer hypocrisy. Almost a quarter of the current cabinet have voted against the party whip. But this is about the national interest, and we’ve moved beyond the point where threats will persuade people to abandon their principles'.” linkIronically, the whole point of David Cameron's decision to hold the 2016 referendum was to end a long-simmering war of words between pro- and anti-EU factions. And had the Leave side won it probably would have cooled off that debate for a number of years, perhaps permanently. But the narrow win by the Leave side created an existential crisis, and three years later the Conservative Party is more deeply at war with itself than it was before. It's being led by a Trumpian flake who is himself under the control of a Bannonesque Svengali named Dominic Cummings who is openly contemptuous of Parliamentary democracy (last this unelected "special advisor" fired an official from the Chancellor's office without even informing the Chancellor, ostensibly one of the most powerful members of Cabinet). And now it's using the threat of self-immolation and deselection before a snap election in an effort to force MPs to support a position they've opposed for years. And that's not the end of it: the Leader of the House is threatening to ignore a law passed by Parliament to block a no-deal Brexit. "Michael Gove has repeatedly refused to rule out the possibility that the government could ignore any law passed by parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit and insisted there would be no food shortages if the UK did crash out of the EU on 31 October...'Let’s see what the legislation says,' he told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show...[Conservative MP Guto Bebb] said Gove had admitted no deal was not what he had campaigned for in the 2016 referendum. 'Now he’s willing to tear up our democratic system to force this outcome on the country, against the wishes of both parliament and the public,' he said." link
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 2, 2019 15:43:58 GMT -5
The UK's Brexit/constitutional crisis has now turned into a bad political thriller. Here's the latest, without comment because none's needed, though the best line is highlighted: Boris Johnson has issued a final Brexit ultimatum to rebel MPs by pledging to call a snap general election next month if the House of Commons pushes ahead with a bill tabled by a cross-party group of backbenchers seeking to block no deal. In a carefully choreographed sequence, Johnson held an emergency cabinet meeting, addressed Conservative MPs at a Downing Street reception and then made a live television address outside No 10 to say there were “no circumstances” under which departure from the EU would not happen on 31 October. Johnson said in his televised address, which was punctuated by chants from protestors at the gates of Downing Street, that he did not want an election. But No 10 briefings openly threatened one on 14 October if rebels did not back down. Johnson said the backbench bill, signed by the former chancellor Philip Hammond, the ex-justice secretary David Gauke and others, would “chop the legs out” from the UK’s Brexit negotiations. The bill, which the MPs hope to push through parliament at high speed if they seize control of the Commons timetable on Tuesday, would mandate Johnson to extend departure until 31 January, unless MPs backed a deal or approved no deal. Downing Street spelled out the consequences for rebel Conservative MPs, already threatened with losing the party whip, if they pushed ahead with the plan and took over the Commons timetable. A No 10 source said the vote on proceeding with the backbench bill would be seen as the equivalent of a confidence motion in the government. If it passed, the government would consider seeking a snap election on 14 October, using the 2011 Fixed-Term Parliaments Act (FTPA). This threat would then be withdrawn if the bill did not succeed. “MPs are effectively considering tomorrow whether to hand control of the negotiations to Jeremy Corbyn,” the source said. “That would be shooting ourselves in the foot and if Conservative MPs help him to make no deal illegal tomorrow, and therefore create another pointless delay, the government’s negotiating position will be wrecked. What they are effectively voting for is to hold a rapid election. And they will have to explain what they are doing.” The Guardian understands the plan has been under consideration for a number of days but was “crystallised” by the seeming determination of MPs to press on with the legislation despite threats of deselection. One source said they believed it could significantly limit the number of rebels. “Some MPs have clearly made up their minds but more than you would think are quietly considering if this is really how they want their political careers to end,” the source said. “You cannot get around that fact, that will be the consequence.” Under the FTPA, the government can trigger an election if two-thirds of MPs support it. With Labour backing an election if it did not take place after 31 October, this would be expected to pass, with Downing Street bullish the election would be called. Senior rebel Tories and Labour MPs are sceptical Johnson would stick to his word and call an election before 31 October, though government sources ruled out any chance of changing the date after MPs had voted. “A prime minister would need to be in place before European council on 17 October,” the source said. “If you are to have any chance of securing a deal, you must have an election before then, and the prime minister has been very clear he wants to get a deal.” Another Downing Street source said there was no serious consideration given to calling an election after 31 October – and they hoped MPs would take that as proof Johnson was intent on securing a deal. “It is a very deliberate choice to call it before 31 October; this is his commitment to getting a deal, that should not be overlooked by MPs tomorrow who say they want to see that proof,” the source said. A source close to the group of Conservative MPs opposed to no deal suggested the group was holding firm. “It’s a bit rich for the prime minister to point the finger at colleagues who plan to defy the party whip – colleagues who voted for a deal three times – while he voted with Jeremy Corbyn to inflict the two biggest parliamentary defeats on a government in British history,” the source said. “The prime minister seems to be doing everything he can to bring about an election, while claiming it’s the last thing he wants.” In Johnson’s brief and occasionally halting public address outside the door of No 10, in parts almost drowned out by boos and chants of “Stop the coup” from protesters, he condemned the backbench plan, published shortly beforehand. He said he was “encouraged by the progress we are making” in talks with Brussels on a new deal, but said moves by MPs to block no deal or extend Brexit would weaken the UK’s negotiating stance. www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/boris-johnson-threatens-to-ignore-mps-on-no-deal-brexit
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 2, 2019 22:13:33 GMT -5
Boris's heavy-handedness did not pay off, apparently: "Rebel Conservatives were defiant on Monday night about Boris Johnson’s threats of deselection and an early general election, with at least 17 Conservative MPs saying privately or publicly that they have not been deterred from voting to stop a no-deal Brexit...One source close to the rebel group said the mood had hardened, especially since briefing began that Johnson was planning a snap election after MPs were deselected." linkThe problem for Boris is that his ploys are openly being choreographed by Dominic Cummings, whose arrogance and disrespect for MPs are not exactly winning over the dissenters. Indeed, they're also alienating their own supporters: "The work and pensions secretary, Amber Rudd, voiced unease at the persuasion tactics being used to deter votes on a proposed bill to stop no deal. She said removing the whip was a “drastic step” and she had made clear to Johnson that she did not agree with threats. She added that sanctions should also apply to Brexiter MPs if they voted against a future deal." And opposition MPs whose votes they could use to offset losses on their side of the aisle: "it is understood a number of Labour MPs who have in the past voted against moves to derail Brexit, including Gareth Snell, Melanie Onn and Yvonne Fovargue, are not planning to defy the Labour whip 'I think there are a number of us who will back another delay with gritted teeth and with no optimism but watching how this government is behaving, it is extremely hard to believe they are pursuing any meaningful Brexit deal,' one Labour MP said."
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 4, 2019 0:28:29 GMT -5
To no one's surprise, the House voted to take up a proposed statute that would require the Government to ask the EU for an extension until Jan. 31 of next year, and prohibit it from taking the UK out of the EU without the approval of the House. That legislation will be taken up on Wednesday, but the 328-301 vote today is a good indication of how that vote will come out. One Tory MP and former Cabinet member quit the party during Tuesday's debate and walked across the aisle to join the Lib-Dems. Several others announced that they will not run in the next election...or at least not run as Conservatives. And in the end 21 Tories voted against the Government, while only 2 Labourites voted with Johnson.
A real danger now is the possibility of creating a Zombie Government, right at the heart of modern representative democracy. It's a near-certainty that the House will vote to require the Government to seek an extension; but Johnson insists he won't do that. The result should be the fall of the Johnson Cabinet and either a new coalition or a new election. But because of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011 it would take a vote of 2/3 in the House to approve holding a new election. But the opposition parties, including Labour, have put an election on the back burner, pending passage and Royal signature on the act they're about to debate. So it's possible that Johnson will be stuck with an extension requirement he does not want, but without the ability to pull the plug on this Parliament and call a new election. Ugh!
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 4, 2019 11:23:52 GMT -5
So, the bill to prohibit no deal and require a 3-month extension passed on second reading, 329-300. That's a shift away from the government of 1 vote. They're now considering amendments in the Committee of the Whole House, presumably aiming for final passage, as amended, on third reading at the end of the session.
EDIT 1: with minor amendment the bill passed a final vote 329-299. Then Boris moved to call a general election for October 15, ostensibly so there'd be a PM with a fresh mandate to negotiate a final deal at the EU Council meeting on October 17, but really in order to facilitate leaving the EU without a deal on October 31. Labour whipped its Members to abstain, since in fact they want an election, but not until the no-deal option is blocked, and today's bill still has to go through the House of Lords, where Tories have proposed 92 dilatory amendments by way of a filibuster, and then be signed by the Queen (something the Government can delay)--and all this with the backdrop that Parliament is to be sent off for five weeks beginning in just five days. So, the final vote was 298 in favor of a new election, 59 opposed. Passed easily, right? Well, no: it's takes a vote of 2/3 of the whole House (436 Members) to dissolve Parliament under the 2011 Fixed-Term Parliament Act. Oops! Johnson's gone 0-3 in his first House votes.
EDIT 2: Continuing his string of defeats, Johnson lost the battle to slow down the no-deal bill in the House of Lords at 1:30 am when they adopted a timetable that would complete consideration by 5 pm Friday, in time for approval of any amendments by the House on Monday. The Government conceded and announced it would be ready to get the bill to the Queen for royal assent immediately thereafter. There's little doubt the EU will agree to an extension on the grounds that the UK will use the time to hold a national election that will (possibly) decide the Brexit issue one way or the other. Actually, I'm dubious they'll get a clear outcome; many predict another hung Parliament, with no effective majority to carry out an up or down Brexit decision. Really, the only sensible thing is to present the public with a choice between no deal or no Brexit in a second referendum. At least this time voters will have seen just how complex this issue really is.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 4, 2019 22:03:29 GMT -5
Comments on the no-deal prohibition bill by Winston Churchill's grandson--kicked out of the Conservative Party for voting on Tuesday to take up the bill:
Excerpts from a remarkable speech during tonight's debate on holding a general election:
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 8, 2019 16:05:07 GMT -5
"Boris Johnson will fly to Dublin to meet the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, on Monday, as he battles to show his Brexit plan remains on track after Amber Rudd dramatically quit the cabinet. Against a backdrop of mounting disquiet inside government at Johnson’s gung-ho approach and the combative style of his chief strategist Dominic Cummings, the British prime minister hopes to demonstrate that he is serious about negotiating a fresh Brexit deal...Rudd’s abrupt departure followed that of the prime minister’s brother, Jo Johnson, who resigned last week after 21 rebels lost the Conservative whip for supporting what Downing Street calls 'Jeremy Corbyn’s surrender bill'. Rudd’s resignation on Saturday evening sparked fears of a domino effect, with other Tory moderates following suit." linkThe story of how Rudd, herself considered a possible PM, handled her resignation is telling about what's happening: "Her final conversation with the PM took place on Saturday evening, when she called him ten minutes before the story was due to be launched online. An agitated Johnson pleaded with her to reconsider. 'The PM wanted to know why she hadn’t told him first. But it is obvious why and she told him: "Boris, you have some pretty brutal advisers,” ' a Rudd aide said." That's the Bannonist crew around Boris, especially Dominic Cummings, she's targeting. And with good reason. They're not only attacking the opposition, but tossing people out of the Conservative Party, too. Idiots.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 9, 2019 11:46:31 GMT -5
The star of the UK's long-running Brexit disaster has been the Speaker of the House, John Bercow. Unlike in the US House, the Speaker, though an elected MP, is expected to act as a neutral umpire, keeping debate within the rules and assuring an orderly consideration of the House's business. Most Speakers have been pretty anonymous, but Bercow, elected to the post in 2009, has been anything but. T-shirts with his signature call of "Order, order" (pronounced "Aw-dah, aw-dah") sell like hotcakes, and his elegant dressings down of Members for disorderly behavior on the floor are legendary. In short, he's a star. But he's also been controversial, largely because he's been passionate about defending the institutional powers and rights of backbench Members against the party leaders, particularly the Government front bench, aka the Executive. This has sent Brexiteers into paroxysms of anger repeatedly, particularly when he has ruled in order backbench motions to block Brexit without Parliament's explicit approval. Breaking with convention, under which the Speaker runs for re-election without opposition, the Tories vowed to have his local party organization de-select him as their candidate and run another against him.
In this context, Bercow announced today that he will resign as both Speaker and MP at the earlier of the dissolution of the current Parliament (assuming the PM's proposal for a new election passes tonight--unlikely) or October 31. That date got quite a reaction from the MPs when he noted that it would be the "least disruptive" date. Of course, that's when the PM has promised the UK will leave the EU, and nearly every analyst--including the Government's own officials--has predicted widespread disruption the following day. Bercow argued that at that point a new Speaker would be selected by current Members, who would know the candidates and therefore could not be "whipped" into voting for someone they didn't know, presumably a pro-Government candidate. He also got a reaction to a clear dig at the PM's plan to run the next campaign on a "people vs. Parliament" platform: "We degrade this Parliament at our peril." When he finished, he got a standing ovation...except from most of the Tories, including the entire front bench. Here's the announcement in full:
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 9, 2019 20:44:59 GMT -5
Parliament again failed to support Johnson's attempt to call an early election, making him 0 for 6 in votes to date, all in the past 6 days. And now he's forced it out of session until mid-October, after promising to violate the statute passed last week that requires he either get a deal with the EU approved by the House by October 19 or request an extension until January 31. This mess is so far from over that it's likely to last years. David Cameron's "gift" to his country, the toff.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 10, 2019 22:53:12 GMT -5
Good lord, the opposition finally are organizing! And they seem to be moving toward a workable solution to the Brexit conundrum: "MPs looking to stop no deal are exploring ways to bring back a version of Theresa May’s Brexit deal plus a vote on a second referendum in the last two weeks of October, amid concerns Boris Johnson will still try to pursue a no-deal departure. Several sources told the Guardian that MPs will spend the next few weeks working on ways to bring back the deal – with added concessions to Labour – to the House of Commons via a backbencher or a temporary prime minister. MPs working on the options said more Tory and former Tory MPs were now open to backing a Brexit deal with a second referendum added, taking parliament closer to a cross-party majority for the plan." linkThis is what Theresa May should have proposed months ago. She had negotiated a deal, and if she'd agreed to go back to the country and ask the voters either to confirm that deal as the Brexit they voted for in 2016 or to decide that they don't want Brexit after all this mess would be over. Instead, she kept trying to win over the extremists in her own party, but not only did they not help her win, they destroyed her Government. Now they're in charge and have made a bloody mess of it. The reality is that Jeremy Corbyn has argued for his entire parliamentary career that the UK should leave the EU, so if May had not been so immersed in the internal politics of her party she easily could have cobbled together a majority with help from him. Unfortunately, Brexit always was about internal warfare among the Tories, so she missed the opportunity. One wise senior Tory MP said during Monday night's debate that a general election cannot solve the Brexit conundrum precisely because it's a general election--meaning voters will be casting ballots on a whole set of proposals from the various parties, not just Brexit. So the result would be ambiguous, and hardly a mandate for any particular Brexit policy. It's clear that the only way to fix this is through a vote specifically on this issue, and not the vague "leave or remain" of 2016 but "take the deal as agreed or stay in the EU," meaning voters would know just what they were getting one way or the other. I hope they're able to pull this off because otherwise they're in for a lot more trouble for years to come.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 11, 2019 10:41:50 GMT -5
And now the judges speak: "Scottish appeal court judges have declared Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the power to interfere in the prime minister’s political decision to prorogue parliament. Lawyers acting for 75 opposition MPs and peers argued Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament for five weeks was illegal and in breach of the constitution, as it was designed to stifle parliamentary debate and action on Brexit. The judges failed to issue an interdict, or injunction, ordering the UK government to reconvene parliament, prompting a row over whether the decision meant MPs could go back to the House of Commons. he court issued an official summary of its decision declaring the prorogation order was 'null and of no effect', but Carloway said the judges were deferring a final decision on an interdict to the UK supreme court, which will hold a three-day hearing next week." linkLast week the appeals court in England ruled the reverse, concluding that the question of whether proroguing Parliament was "political" and therefore not justiciable because the courts have no standard on which to determine whether the action is constitutionally justified. At this point it's hard to see what practical effect these decisions will have, given that Parliament likely will be back in session before the Supremes hear the case, render a verdict, and the Government reacts. But they will set a precedent that will affect future political disputes like this one. If the Supreme Court rules against the Government it will be opening a whole set of issues for litigation that in the past were considered political, as has happened in the US. Whether this is a smart way to go is another matter.
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 11, 2019 13:03:18 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Old Badger on Sept 11, 2019 13:31:51 GMT -5
This is what Brexit really is all about: "Merkel also warned of the economic threat that the UK could pose. Johnson had privately told EU diplomats during his time as foreign secretary of his desire to build a 'buccaneering' Britain, which has been seen as an indication of his plan to recast the UK as a low-tax and low-regulation state. Merkel’s comments indicate the difficulty that the British government will face in striking what it has described as a 'best in class' free trade deal if it fails to match EU standards on goods, workers’ rights, tax and the environment, among others." linkWhile Johnson, Rees-Mogg and the rest have been selling the public on "freeing" the UK from EU dominance, what they really are after is turning the UK into what some of them call "the Singapore of Europe." Essentially, they intend to create a tax haven with little regulation of the quality of goods and services and--perhaps most important--weak worker rights. If this sounds familiar it's because that's the same platform as the "libertarian" wing of the Republican Party here. It's no surprise because the two parties share a lot of the same donors, intellectuals, and political consultants (e. g., Bannon). Europe's not going to fall for it: "U sources have said that the UK will need to sign up to more onerous, level playing-field obligations than Canada due to the UK’s proximity and the size of its economy. Diplomats in Brussels said that the British government would be presented with a 'Canada minus minus', potentially including tariffs on some goods, if it seeks to strike a free trade deal without the full array of commitments currently contained in the political declaration on the future relationship agreed with Theresa May."
|
|
|
Post by badgerjon66 on Sept 11, 2019 14:16:54 GMT -5
What Brexit is about is much more complex.
Simply,, the UK people voted to exit (secede?) from the EU, which is imploding either way. And the UK ruling political class has been (for 3 years) and remains determined to deny the little people (voters) their legal democratic choice. So similar in so many ways to ruling political class in US determination to deny the people their choice for President.
I am not yet convinced Boris might not be a Trojan Horse for the corrupt "resistors", but we will see. They do hold another election & Farage might win it all. If the will of the UK people is,in the end, respected and the UK does leave the EU will be in existential danger. (might be anyway) Merkel turns to China (and Pelosi blocking US/Mex/Can deal) for help in fighting a tremendously strong UK:USA (plus Mex & Can.) economic engine, but China is in far worse shape than most recognize. A lot of shit may hit the fan in the next cpl months and Trump's American economy is by far in the best position to wade through it. You call the totalitarian bureaucrats in Brussels "diplomats"? funny. The American workers and taxpayers have protected & supported Western Europe far too long. If they want to work hard enough to pull their own weight we shoud work with them. If not, 'ef em all (except UK). You do know where Merkel grew up, right?
|
|